Gold climbs back above $4,100 as the dollar and oil slip, even with a December Fed hike in play
Gold futures are up about 1.0% from Friday at $4,117, silver is up 1.7%, the dollar index is down 0.4% and crude is off 2.8%, a day before the October CPI report.
Gold is back above $4,100 an ounce on Monday morning. December gold futures traded at about $4,117 at 7:06 AM ET, up from Friday's final print of $4,074.90, a gain of 1.04% by our arithmetic, per Yahoo Finance. Headlines from Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, Reuters and Investing.com tie the move to a weaker dollar and softer oil, with traders waiting on U.S. inflation data. Spot gold was quoted near $4,113 by BusinessToday Malaysia.
The numbers behind the move
| Instrument | Friday final | 7:06 AM ET Monday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold futures | $4,074.90 | $4,117.10 | +1.04% |
| Silver futures | $51.80 | $52.71 | +1.74% |
| Dollar index | 102.30 | 101.88 | -0.41% |
| WTI crude (front month) | $90.83 | $88.29 | -2.80% |
Source: Yahoo Finance. Early-session and thin-volume prints can reverse.
Why a rate-hike bet did not stop it
The usual story is that higher rates hurt gold, which pays no interest. Friday's strong jobs data did push December Fed hike bets higher, and gold slid on the day. Last week's Reuters/LSEG figures, which we cited in our week-ahead, had futures pricing about a 65% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8 to 9 meeting. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday at 4.86%, per the Treasury's daily curve.
Monday's bounce runs on two other legs. Gold is priced in dollars, so a 0.4% drop in the dollar index makes it cheaper for foreign buyers. And crude's slide, which followed President Trump's comment that renewed Iran strikes are "highly unlikely" if talks hold, eases the inflation worry that feeds hike expectations. Cheaper oil lowers the odds of a harder Fed, and that is what the outlets are crediting.
What it does not tell us
Gold is still about 22.6% below its Jan. 29 peak on our chart, and it traded as low as $3,898.90 on Oct. 30. Reclaiming $4,100 is a rebound inside a larger decline, not a new trend. Silver's 1.7% gain shows the move is broad across metals, but we found no single company or policy catalyst beyond the dollar and oil.
Who feels it: gold miners report higher realized prices, which is why Barrick's results leaned on gold. Jewelers, coin dealers and pawn shops reprice inventory when the metal moves 1% in a morning, and anyone with a gold-linked costs line sees it first in replacement value.
What to watch
Tuesday, Nov. 10, 8:30 AM ET: the October consumer price index, per the BLS schedule. A hot print would revive hike bets and lift the dollar, the two forces gold just shrugged off. A cool one, with oil already lower, would add to Monday's move. Oil headlines out of the Gulf remain the swing factor for both. Our gold chart and markets board carry live prices.
Sources: Yahoo Finance; Bloomberg and WSJ headlines (full text not read); Reuters, Investing.com, FXStreet and BusinessToday Malaysia headlines; U.S. Treasury; BLS; Chronicle reporting. Some data may be delayed. This is market information, not investment advice.
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