Home prices fell for the first time in 3 years: Redfin's median sale price is $388,634, down 0.4%

The median U.S. home-sale price fell 0.4% from a year earlier to $388,634 in October, the first annual decline since May 2023, according to Redfin's October report published Tuesday. Only two months earlier the same measure was up 2.5%.

What Redfin's numbers show

• Mortgage rates: Redfin says rates averaged 7.33% in October, a three-year high, up from 6.86% in September.
• Demand: pending sales fell 3.6% in the month to their lowest level since 2013 (excluding April 2020), and were down 15.1% from a year earlier. Closed sales were the lowest since December 2023.
• Supply: active listings of 1,526,984 are the highest since early 2020, though new listings fell 1% to a two-year low as would-be sellers hold back.
• Buyer leverage: 61% of homes sold below their original list price, 36% had a price cut (the highest share in Redfin's records) and about 15% of pending deals fell through.

Two housing markets

The national decline hides a split. Redfin says prices rose in more than half of the 50 largest metros. San Francisco led at +16.8%, its biggest gain since 2018, followed by New Brunswick, NJ (+7.7%) and New York City and Nassau County (+4.4% each). The steepest falls were Austin (-6.5%), Seattle (-5.1%) and Nashville (-4.9%).

The number behind the number

A 0.4% dip sounds trivial. The monthly payment is where it matters. Take a buyer putting 20% down on the median home: a loan of about $310,907. On a 30-year fixed mortgage, principal and interest work out to:

Chronicle arithmetic on $388,634 with 20% down; excludes taxes, insurance and mortgage insurance.

The rate move from September to October adds about $99 a month ($2,138 minus $2,039), nearly $1,200 a year, on that loan. A 4% price cut of about $15,500 would be needed to offset it. That is why prices are flat while sales have collapsed: sellers are not cutting enough to cancel what the rate did to payments.

Freddie Mac's weekly survey has eased from a 7.40% peak on October 8 and 15 to 7.18% on November 5, so the pressure has lifted slightly. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield, which our chart shows is below its October 5 peak (see also what 7% mortgage rates mean for a remodeler, a mover and a real estate team). A December Fed hike, now being priced by markets, could reverse that.

Who it hits

• A seller who needs to move: Redfin agent Callie Kimmel advises pricing just below current market value from day one and using recent listings, not six-month-old comps, as the guide.
• A remodeler or home stager: fewer sales means fewer move-in projects, while owners who stay put and renovate are the likelier customers.
• A buyer: Redfin's Chen Zhao says the listing price may be a starting point, and buyers should try offers below asking and negotiate on closing costs, repairs and rate buydowns.

For owners of small firms that depend on housing turnover, our real estate section tracks the weekly rate and sales data.

Sources: Redfin, "October Marks the First Month in 3 Years With a Decline in U.S. Home-Sale Prices" (Nov. 10, 2026); Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey history; Yahoo Finance (10-year yield chart). Redfin figures other than median sale price and mortgage rate are seasonally adjusted. Payments are Chronicle arithmetic. This is market information, not investment advice.