Iran says Saturday's Hormuz blasts were not U.S. strikes, as Qatar denies talks have failed

Update. Iranian state television suggested Saturday evening's explosions in southern Iran were tied to Iranian military activity in the Strait of Hormuz, not American strikes, while the U.S. and Iran each reported shipping hit in or near the waterway, CNBC reported in a piece carrying Reuters reporting. This follows our Saturday report on the U.S. strike on a cargo ship. Here is what is new.

What Iran says, and what nobody has confirmed

State television said officials had not confirmed any missile strike on Iranian territory after blasts were heard in several areas, including Qeshm Island. Iran's state broadcaster said the explosions might relate to Iranian activity in the strait, where it said two vessels hit mines and a third caught fire. Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said two oil tankers caught fire after hitting mines on an "unauthorized route," and the semi-official Fars agency later reported a third tanker explosion and fire. The Tasnim agency separately said two missiles struck Qeshm. Neither Iran nor the United States had commented on that, according to the report. These are Iranian media claims, and we cannot verify them.

On the U.S. side, the military said its air force fired at the stern of a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman, disabling it as it tried to pass the blockade. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations monitor reported an incident involving a bulk carrier and military forces about 18 nautical miles east of Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, with damage unknown. The report says it was unclear whether that was the same vessel.

No sign of the big operation

The report notes the U.S. had hinted at renewing major attacks after the midterms, but there was no sign of a large-scale operation, which Iran says it would answer by striking U.S. and Israeli targets. Washington said on Nov. 2 that it had hit Qeshm in a limited defensive action against Iranians firing surface-to-air missiles at U.S. assets. Per the same report, Iran has been hitting vessels in the strait since the war began in February, and U.S. forces began blockading Iranian ports in April.

The diplomacy: Qatar and seven demands

Qatar, which is mediating, denied reports that the U.S. and Iran had failed to reach a deal and said both sides are still working toward an agreement. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Thursday that Iran had sent a nuclear proposal through Qatar, but that talks depend on Washington first meeting Tehran's seven demands, including sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and war reparations. Washington insists nuclear issues be part of the first round of talks. That gap in sequencing, not a lack of contact, is the stated obstacle.

What it means for oil, shipping and travelers

Oil. Futures are closed for the weekend, so there is no market reaction yet. WTI settled Friday at $90.83, per Yahoo Finance, up from $90.52 Thursday but down from $96.09 on Tuesday, a 5.5% drop by our arithmetic. Yahoo's front-month series can differ from the active December contract, so treat the level as approximate. The first test is Sunday evening's open, with mine reports, a third tanker fire and the denial of failed talks all pointing different ways. Shipping and insurance. Mines are a different risk from missiles: they can hit any vessel on a route, which is why an "unauthorized route" warning matters to owners and underwriters. Airlines and defense. No new airspace closures were reported in these accounts. Consumers. Pump prices follow crude with a lag, so a Monday oil jump would show at the station within days.

More: today's War Room brief, crude oil chart, War Room.

Sources: CNBC (Reuters reporting), Reuters headline, Yahoo Finance. Claims are attributed to the parties that made them. This is market information, not investment advice.