Jaguar Mining profit jumps 67%, but gold at $3,900 is now close to its $3,164 cost per ounce

The headline in Jaguar Mining's third-quarter release is a 67% jump in adjusted net income. The numbers underneath it matter more to anyone holding a gold miner while the metal slides. The Toronto-listed producer (TSX: JAG, OTCQX: JAGGF) reported adjusted net income of $13.0 million, or $0.15 a share, against $7.8 million a year earlier, in its results release issued the evening of November 12. Revenue rose 79% to $60.8 million. All figures are in U.S. dollars.

The margin: $4,262 in, $3,164 out

Jaguar sold 14,259 ounces at an average realized price of $4,262, up 23% from a year ago. Its all-in sustaining cost (a miner's measure of what it costs to produce and sustain each ounce) was $3,164, up from $2,063 in the third quarter of 2025. The company put its all-in sustaining margin at $1,098 an ounce.

Gold futures were trading near $3,921 on Friday morning, per Yahoo Finance. That is about 8% below Jaguar's realized price. Our arithmetic, not the company's: if the quarter's cost held and the company sold at $3,921, the margin would be roughly $757 an ounce, about 31% thinner. Costs are quarter-specific and will move, so treat this as a sensitivity, not a forecast. Our gold report covers why the metal fell, and gold is now 26.3% under its January 29 peak in our chart below.

Cash fell and free cash flow turned negative

Two things the "67% growth" framing leaves out. First, adjusted net income fell from $17.4 million in the second quarter, so the gain is year over year only. Second, free cash flow was negative $14.6 million. The company attributes it to an $11.7 million receivable from a gold sale at the end of September, collected in early October, plus $9.1 million paid on legal and other provisions mostly tied to the Satinoco incident, and $10.2 million of sustaining capital spending. Cash of $47.8 million excludes that $11.7 million receivable.

Guidance and a permit setback

Jaguar produced 12,981 ounces in the quarter and 35,668 so far this year. It kept 2026 guidance at 50,000 to 60,000 ounces but said it is "more likely to achieve the lower end" of that range. Reaching 50,000 would take about 14,300 ounces in the fourth quarter, slightly above the third quarter's output, by our arithmetic.

The company also disclosed that on October 30 a Minas Gerais environmental authority denied its application for a licence on the Onças de Pitangui project. It said the decision found environmental viability "not demonstrated at this time", not that the project is unfeasible, and that it will correct the deficiencies and resubmit. Construction cannot begin until the licence is granted, and the company said it cannot estimate a date.

What to watch

For small and mid-size producers, the story this quarter is the same as for the majors: gold prices that looked generous in the summer now sit closer to rising costs. For comparison, Barrick reported a realized price of $4,243 and an all-in sustaining cost of $1,911 in our earlier report, a far wider cushion. Next for Jaguar: the fourth-quarter output against the 50,000-ounce floor, whether unit costs come down as fixed costs spread over more ounces, and the licence resubmission.

Sources: Jaguar Mining third-quarter 2026 results release (ACCESS Newswire, November 12, 2026); Yahoo Finance gold futures. Figures are company-reported and non-IFRS measures are defined in the release. This is market information, not investment advice.