Lockheed raises 2026 outlook as Pentagon backs 850 F-35s, but only 94 jets delivered so far vs 143

The Pentagon and Lockheed Martin announced a 10-year framework on Thursday covering at least 850 F-35 fighters, and Lockheed raised its 2026 outlook for the second quarter in a row. The headline is bigger than the paperwork behind it: the deal is a framework, not a funded production order, and the company's own quarterly filing says the F-35 contract talks are still open.

What was announced

According to France 24's report on the announcement, Lockheed pledged to keep production at 156 aircraft a year and to fund $7 billion of F-35 related projects itself, in exchange for the Pentagon's 10-year commitment. Congress must still approve and fund it, and no price was disclosed. Michael Duffey, the Pentagon's top acquisition official, said the department has "fundamentally changed how we stabilize the American defense industrial base." Reuters and Bloomberg both carried the announcement.

What Lockheed's filing says

In its third-quarter release filed with the SEC, Lockheed reported:

Backlog reached a record $291.98 billion, up from $193.6 billion at the end of 2025. Missiles and Fire Control alone went from $46.7 billion to $142.5 billion, and the company says $52.5 billion of the total comes from the multi-year award for PAC-3 MSE interceptors. Aeronautics, the F-35 home segment, actually fell from $59.4 billion to $57.3 billion over the same period.

The 2026 outlook moved up: sales to about $80.0 billion to $82.0 billion (from $79.75 billion to $81.75 billion in July), earnings per share to about $30.35 to $30.75 (from $29.95 to $30.65), and free cash flow to about $7.8 billion to $8.0 billion (from $7.0 billion to $7.2 billion).

The number behind the number

Two details in the filing do not appear in the wire headlines.

• Deliveries are lagging. Lockheed delivered 43 F-35s in the third quarter against 46 a year earlier, and 94 in the first nine months against 143. A 156-a-year pace is the pledge; the nine-month actual annualizes well below it.
• A funding gap is already open. The filing says the company "remains in negotiations" on F-35 lot 20 and later contracts, that its costs began to exceed the contractual authorization and funding on the Lot 20 advance acquisition contract during the third quarter, and that without more authorization and funding from the government its results and cash flows "will be negatively impacted in future periods."

So the framework is the route to closing that gap, not proof it is closed. The next steps are congressional approval, then pricing and delivery terms with the F-35 Joint Program Office.

Who it touches

For traders in defense names, the read-through is backlog quality: a $52.5 billion missile award is booked, while the F-35 framework is a commitment awaiting appropriations. For the machine shops, castings suppliers and electronics makers that feed the F-35 line, a 10-year volume signal supports hiring and equipment decisions, but purchase orders follow funded contracts, not announcements. Related coverage: Raytheon's AMRAAM multiyear contract, which carries the same unfunded-by-Congress caveat.

Sources: Lockheed Martin Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, Oct. 22, 2026; France 24; Reuters and Bloomberg coverage of the announcement. This is market information, not investment advice.