Meta, Tesla, IBM, Lam and TI report after Wednesday's close: Meta's $145B capex is the test

Wednesday is the heaviest earnings day of the season for the AI trade. Meta, Tesla, IBM, Lam Research, Texas Instruments and Southwest Airlines all report after the close, and AT&T reports before the open. Meta carries the most weight: it told investors in July that it expects to spend $130 billion to $145 billion on capital expenditures in 2026, and the market wants to know whether that range moves.

The calendar

Times come from each company's own announcement; consensus figures are from Newsquawk's earnings sheet. Estimates differ by source: Yahoo Finance cites $6.76 and $63.35 billion for Meta, within the company's own $61 billion to $64 billion revenue guide.

Meta: the capex range

In its investor relations announcement Meta set results for after the close, with a 1:30 p.m. Pacific call. At its July report it narrowed 2026 capex to $130 billion to $145 billion, from $125 billion to $145 billion, and raised its total expense outlook to $165 billion to $169 billion. The ceiling has held while the floor rose. A raise to the top end, or a first look at 2027 spending, is what the market will react to.

Tesla: margin, not deliveries

Deliveries are already known. Tesla's Form 8-K showed 486,532 vehicles delivered and 464,391 produced in the third quarter, and 13.7 GWh of storage deployed. That leaves profitability as the open question: consensus is $0.45 a share on about $27.9 billion of revenue. Yahoo Finance flags robotaxi and robot updates, plus questions on a possible SpaceX merger, as the likely call topics.

Lam Research: the guide for next quarter

Lam guided the September quarter to $8.1 billion in revenue, plus or minus $400 million, and EPS of $2.15, plus or minus $0.15, according to 24/7 Wall St., so the $8.13 billion consensus sits at the midpoint. The next-quarter forecast matters more: Newsquawk's sheet has analysts at $8.55 billion. Equipment orders tied to AI memory are the demand signal to read.

Texas Instruments: does the analog rebound hold

TI guided the quarter to $5.65 billion to $6.15 billion in revenue and $2.23 to $2.57 in EPS, so the $5.92 billion and $2.42 consensus are mid-range. Last quarter revenue rose 13% sequentially, led by industrial, data center and automotive. The fourth-quarter guide, which analysts have at about $5.75 billion, is the number.

IBM, AT&T and Southwest

IBM reports at $2.86 and $16.81 billion, and the same sheet has $4.62 expected for the fourth quarter. AT&T says it will release results before the open and hold a call at 8:30 a.m. ET; it is the only one of the group to report ahead of the bell. Southwest, per its release, publishes after the close Wednesday and talks Thursday morning; analysts expect $0.57 a share, against $0.87 for the next quarter.

Why the stack matters

With Meta, Tesla, TI, Lam and IBM reporting within about an hour of each other, the after-hours tape is likely to be noisy. Futures will take their first read on AI spending from Meta and Lam in particular. For small businesses, the read-through is indirect: TI's industrial and automotive commentary is an early signal on equipment and manufacturing demand. Track live levels on our markets page.

Sources: company announcements from Meta, Lam Research, Texas Instruments, IBM, AT&T and Southwest; Tesla Form 8-K on SEC EDGAR; Newsquawk; 24/7 Wall St.; Yahoo Finance. Consensus estimates vary by provider and may change before the reports. This is market information, not investment advice.