Moderna swings to a $162 million profit and raises its revenue outlook, and the stock jumps 7%

Moderna reported a third-quarter profit on Friday and raised its 2026 revenue forecast, and the shares were trading at $258.18 at 12:51 PM ET, up 6.9% on the day and just under its 52-week high of $261, according to Nasdaq.com. Its market value is about $103 billion.

The numbers, from the company's 8-K press release on SEC EDGAR: revenue of $1.31 billion, up 29% from $1.0 billion a year earlier ($780 million in the U.S., $533 million international); net income of $162 million, or 38 cents a share, against a loss of $200 million, or 51 cents, a year ago. CNBC reported that analysts surveyed by LSEG had expected revenue of $885 million and a loss of $1.25 a share.

The outlook, line by line

Moderna now expects 2026 revenue to grow 15% to 25%, up from its earlier "up to 10%." It kept its split of roughly half U.S. and half international. It trimmed expected 2026 research spending to about $2.7 billion from $2.9 billion, left selling and administrative costs at about $1.0 billion, and lowered planned capital spending to about $0.2 billion.

The number behind the number: the cash forecast

The headline in the release's bullet list is that Moderna raised its expected year-end cash and investments to $8.1 billion to $8.3 billion, from $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion. That is a lift of roughly $3.25 billion at the midpoints. It reads like an operating win. Most of it is financing.

The company says the increase reflects "improved operational execution" and proceeds from its convertible notes. In the quarter, cash and investments rose to $8.0 billion from $6.9 billion at the end of June. That included $2.6 billion of net proceeds from convertible notes and related capped-call transactions, less the $950 million litigation settlement payment announced earlier this year. Our arithmetic on those disclosed figures: $6.9 billion, plus $2.6 billion, minus $0.95 billion, leaves about $8.55 billion, so the business itself and other items used roughly $0.55 billion in the quarter (rounded figures, so treat that as approximate). The company also said most third-quarter product sales had not yet been collected by September 30, so some of that cash is still owed to it.

Put differently, about $2.6 billion of the roughly $3.25 billion forecast increase is borrowed money that converts to stock under certain terms, and the remaining $0.65 billion or so is the gain from better operations and the lower spending outlook. Convertible notes are debt that can later turn into shares, so existing shareholders should read the filing's terms rather than treat the cash as free.

What is driving the revenue

Moderna attributes the growth mainly to higher COVID vaccine sales in international markets, supported by long-term supply agreements with the U.K., Canada and Australia, plus a five-year COVID vaccine agreement signed in September with a local manufacturer in Mexico. CEO Stéphane Bancel told CNBC the quarter reflected "the new product and the diversification of geography." The company's new flu shot, mFLUSIVA, was approved in the U.S. in August, but Moderna says the launch is limited this season because approval came after the annual contracting cycle.

Cost of sales rose 54% to $318 million, faster than revenue, which includes $65 million of third-party royalties. Research spending fell 27% to $583 million as late-stage infectious disease studies wound down. That is where much of the profit swing came from: the company cut costs while revenue rose.

The pipeline items the stock trades on

In October, Moderna and Merck presented Phase 3 melanoma data for intismeran with Keytruda, which cut the risk of recurrence or death by 42% against Keytruda alone (hazard ratio 0.58). We covered the 17% stock drop after part of that data leaked online. Moderna says it and Merck are working toward regulatory submissions. Its norovirus vaccine missed the bar for early success in an interim analysis, and the company will not add a cohort this season. Pivotal data in propionic acidemia is expected in 2026.

What to watch

CNBC noted that the stock is up more than 700% this year, so expectations are high. The points to track are the terms of the convertible notes in the company's filings, whether international COVID contracts keep renewing, how the limited flu launch converts into next year's contracting, and the regulatory path for intismeran.

Sources: Moderna Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 on SEC EDGAR; CNBC; Nasdaq.com market data as of 12:51 PM ET, Nov. 6, 2026. This is market information, not investment advice.