MSCI deletes Strategy from its indexes on Nov. 30: its own math puts the selling near $1.5 billion

The doubt is over. MSCI's final list of affected securities, published with its November index review, shows "STRATEGY A" with the action "Deleted," Cointelegraph reported on Thursday. Japan's Metaplanet and crypto treasury company Upexi are also marked for deletion, and Ether treasury firm Sharplink is on a watchlist. The changes take effect after the close on November 30. WSJ, Reuters and CoinDesk are running the same news under their own headlines. We covered the rule itself when MSCI adopted it, in our October piece, which said nothing was confirmed until this list. Now something is.

The number behind the number

Most headlines will carry one figure: roughly $2.8 billion in forced selling. Cointelegraph attributes that to a JPMorgan estimate from October. As we noted then, that estimate dates from the earlier crypto-specific consultation, so treat it as an upper marker rather than a measurement of this rule.

Strategy gave MSCI a different figure. In its consultation response, according to Cointelegraph, MSCI-linked funds held about 13 million Strategy shares, 3.1% of its basic shares outstanding, and less than one day's trading volume. The arithmetic is simple:

• 13 million shares x $122.35 (Wednesday's close, per Nasdaq) = about $1.59 billion.
• 13 million shares x $114.45 (the pre-market quote at 8:26 AM ET Thursday) = about $1.49 billion.

That is roughly half the $2.8 billion headline. Both are estimates from parties with a stake in the framing, and Strategy's share count was given before the final decision, so holdings may differ today. We have not seen MSCI's own tally. What the comparison does show is that the scale is debated by a factor of nearly two, and that Strategy says the 13 million shares would be absorbed within a day of normal trading. Funds that track the index sell to match it as of the effective date, which is why the November 30 close matters.

What the market is doing this morning

Strategy was quoted at $114.45 in pre-market trading at 8:26 AM ET, down $7.90 or 6.46% from Wednesday's $122.35 close. Cointelegraph noted a 1.65% fall in after-hours trading on Wednesday. Bitcoin is not helping the comparison: Coinbase's BTC-USD stats show $72,505.92 against a 24-hour-ago open of $73,723.74, down about 1.7%. We have not found a source that splits the share-price drop between the MSCI news and the broader crypto slide, so we do not assign one. On our own chart, the stock closed Wednesday 45.5% below its peak close of the past year.

Who it actually touches

• Holders of MSCI-tracking funds. Funds benchmarked to MSCI's global indexes must sell the three names; funds tracking other providers' indexes, including the Nasdaq-100, are not forced by this decision.
• Strategy's preferred and common shareholders. Strategy has funded bitcoin purchases partly by selling stock. A weaker share price changes the economics of that, a point CoinDesk's headline raises. We could not retrieve the article text, so we do not repeat its specifics.
• Metaplanet and Upexi holders. The same mechanical logic applies to their local float, though we have no estimate for either.

What to watch

• November 30 close: the effective date, when index funds trade.
• Any Strategy filing or statement that updates its stake in MSCI-linked funds.
• Sharplink's watchlist status at the next review.

More on the company: Strategy stock: what is going on. Related: Metaplanet's bitcoin position.

Sources: Cointelegraph (MSCI list and Strategy consultation figures; we could not open MSCI's own site, which blocks automated access); headlines from WSJ, Reuters, CoinDesk and Yahoo Finance; Nasdaq quote data; Coinbase market stats. Prices as of 8:26 AM ET, November 12. Information, not investment advice.