Census: 32 million U.S. businesses have no employees, and filings planning payroll fell 15%

The number of U.S. businesses with no employees reached a record 31,985,874 in 2024, up 5.1% from 2023, according to the Census Bureau's 2024 Nonemployer Statistics, released September 29. That is the biggest one-year jump in the nine-year run we checked, and it comes as new-business filings in 2026 are running well ahead of last year. A CNBC report on Saturday ties the shift to AI tools that let one person do work that used to need a team. The data supports part of that story and leaves a lot of it open.

The number behind the number

We pulled the Census national files for each year. Nonemployer establishments rose from 24.8 million in 2016 to 32.0 million in 2024, a gain of 7.2 million, or about 29%. Growth was 3.6% in 2017, 3.0% in 2018, 2.3% in 2019 and just 0.2% in 2020, then 4.9% in 2021, 4.7% in 2022, 2.1% in 2023 and 5.1% in 2024.

Receipts rose too, to $1.861 trillion in 2024 from $1.753 trillion in 2023 (+6.2%). Divide by the count and the average nonemployer took in about $58,200 in gross receipts. That is revenue, not profit or pay, and it is an average across everyone from full-time consultants to people selling a few items online. Census defines a nonemployer as a business with no paid employees, subject to federal income tax, with receipts of $1,000 or more ($1 or more in construction), based on IRS tax records.

By sector, 2024 counts grew in the trades and in knowledge work alike: construction 3.04 million (+4.3%), professional, scientific and technical services 4.23 million (+3.9%), retail trade 2.18 million (+4.6%), information 425,436 (+6.5%) and accommodation and food services 721,546 (+8.6%). One caution on the "AI" label: 2024 growth was broad, including sectors where AI is not the obvious driver.

2026 applications: more filings, fewer plans to hire

The Census Business Formation Statistics show how the pace has changed this year. Summing the unadjusted monthly series for January through September, total business applications were 4,927,840 in 2026, versus 4,273,086 in the same months of 2025, up 15.3%. Applications that report planned wages went the other way: 336,905 versus 397,614, down 15.3%. Those wage-planning filings fell from 9.3% of all applications to 6.8%.

Census's "high-propensity" applications, a model-based flag for businesses likely to become employers, rose a modest 4.7% over the same period, to 1,386,358. In its October 14 release, Census put seasonally adjusted September applications at 534,947, up 0.5% from August, with 29,022 projected formations of businesses with payroll tax liabilities within four quarters.

That matches an analysis from the Nasdaq Economic Institute, reported by IBTimes in June, which found applications from one-person firms up more than 20% since early 2025 while those from likely employers were largely unchanged. IBTimes also noted that part of the jump reflects tax-reporting changes that pushed online sellers on platforms such as Etsy and eBay to register as businesses. CNBC cites a Mercatus Center study that found applications in highly AI-exposed industries with no early hiring signs rose 26.8% from Q1 2024 to Q1 2026, while those with stronger hiring signs fell 6.4%. The researcher called the findings preliminary and descriptive, and said they do not prove AI caused the rise.

What the BLS numbers say

More registrations do not necessarily mean more people working for themselves full time. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' household survey table counted 9.41 million unincorporated self-employed workers in October 2026 (seasonally adjusted), against 9.52 million in September, 9.55 million in August, 9.74 million in July and 9.43 million in June. That is a flat range, not a surge. The unadjusted incorporated count was 6.96 million in October. BLS did not collect October 2025 data because of the federal shutdown, so we cannot give a clean year-over-year comparison.

The two series measure different things: Census counts tax-filing business entities, while BLS counts people who say self-employment is their job. A gap between them is consistent with many new registrations being side businesses, though neither agency's data proves it.

What it means for a business owner

• If you are a solo operator: your competition is growing, and tools are cheap. CNBC's examples spend under $60 a month on AI tools and describe doing bookkeeping, ad management and customer service without staff. They also say they still depend on big platforms such as Amazon, Meta, Shopify and LinkedIn for customers, so your costs and risks sit there.
• If you run a small shop with employees: you are now competing with lean operators on price and speed in services, e-commerce and trades alike. A photographer is a good example: we count 23,019 independent photography businesses on file, and our photography playbook covers positioning against cheaper rivals.
• If you are thinking about your first hire: CNBC reports Gusto data showing businesses that adopted AI had about 7% higher headcount a year later than comparable non-adopters, and about 10% higher among firms under 10 employees. That is one payroll provider's customer base, not the economy, but it suggests AI use and hiring are not strictly opposites.
• Check your own filings: a nonemployer must stay at zero paid employees. Hiring a first W-2 worker changes your tax registrations, insurance and payroll obligations, so plan the paperwork before the offer.

What we could not verify

We could not confirm that AI is the cause. The Census files do not say which businesses use AI, and the 2024 count predates most of the 2026 filing surge. We also cannot tell how many new registrants stay one-person firms. The Nonemployer Statistics for 2025 are not due for another year. Related: see our small-business coverage.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Nonemployer Statistics (national files 2016-2024, receipts in current dollars) and Business Formation Statistics (monthly series; 2025 and 2026 sums are our calculation from unadjusted data, January to September); Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation Table A-9 (released November 2026); CNBC, November 7, 2026; IBTimes, June 9, 2026. This is business information, not investment advice.