Nvidia has lost $450 billion in market value, and its board still has no decision on Huang
Update: CNBC says the board meeting ran into Wednesday night with no outcome. With Nvidia about 6% of the S&P 500, a 9% overnight drop is worth roughly half a point to an index fund.
Nvidia's board met Wednesday to decide whether to remove CEO Jensen Huang, and as of late evening CNBC reported the meeting had stretched on with no outcome. The company has not announced a decision. This updates our earlier report on the Wall Street Journal story.
The numbers so far
- Close Wednesday: $173.73, up 2.87%, per Nasdaq.com. The 52-week range there is $164.27 to $243.37.
- After hours: Fortune put the stock near $160 in post-market trading, citing Yahoo Finance; CNBC said it fell more than 9%. Extended-hours prices are thin and can reverse by the open.
- Market value lost: Fox Business counts more than $427 billion in the first two sessions after Huang's Sunday disclosure; Fortune, citing CBS News, says more than $450 billion since then. The two figures use different end points, so treat them as the same order of magnitude, not a precise tally.
- Next catalyst: third-quarter results on November 17, according to Nasdaq.com.
What it means for a plain index fund
Most readers hold Nvidia through funds, not shares. Leonard Gilroy of the Reason Foundation told Fortune that Nvidia is about 6% of the S&P 500's market value and about 10% of the Nasdaq 100's. Apply that to a 9% drop: 0.06 x 0.09 is about 0.54%, so an S&P 500 fund would lose roughly half a percentage point from Nvidia alone, and a Nasdaq 100 fund about 0.9 points (0.10 x 0.09). That is a one-company estimate using his weights and the after-hours move, before anything else in the market changes.
Gilroy also noted that about 70% of 401(k) assets sit in public equities and many savers hold target-date or mixed funds, which dilutes the hit. Jill Fisch of the University of Pennsylvania's law school told Fortune the scandal itself is unlikely to change the company's long-term value; leadership and security questions are what could.
What is known and not known
Huang admitted to an affair in a staff message on Sunday, and the board opened an independent investigation with the law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, according to CNBC. The WSJ then reported the board was preparing to oust him, and the New York Times reported a second relationship, with an executive who reports to him. We are not repeating personal details. The Chronicle has not independently confirmed the WSJ or NYT reporting, and Nvidia has not commented on either.
Fox Business adds that the board said it had no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised. Baird downgraded the stock to neutral, Morgan Stanley took Nvidia off its Top Pick list and Bank of America dropped it from its U.S. 1 List, per Fox.
What to watch
- An announcement or an 8-K on SEC EDGAR, which is where a CEO change would have to be disclosed.
- Thursday's open, and whether Nasdaq futures hold their overnight levels (our markets page).
- The November 17 report, now a test of both the numbers and who presents them.
Sources: CNBC, Fortune and Fox Business, linked above; Nasdaq.com quote data; chart from Yahoo Finance data. After-hours prices may be delayed or thin. This is market information, not investment advice.
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