OPEC+ oil output jumps to 97% of its prewar level as Saudi Arabia pumps 10.56 million barrels a day

OPEC+ crude production rose sharply in October, with Saudi Arabia leading, even though shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are still disrupted by the Iran war. The group pumped 41.23 million barrels a day, up about 2.04 million from September, according to OPEC's monthly report on Wednesday as reported by Reuters. The figures are from secondary sources, which are outside estimates of what each country produces.

The number behind the number: a gap that has shrunk to 1.5 million barrels

Reuters calculated that October output was 97% of the 42.72 million barrels a day OPEC+ produced in February, before the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Subtracting the two figures gives a shortfall of about 1.49 million barrels a day, our arithmetic. When we covered the October 4 OPEC+ meeting, the core seven producers alone were roughly 5 million barrels a day below February, based on August data. These two measures cover different groups and different months, so they are not a like-for-like comparison, but the direction is clear: a large part of the lost supply has come back.

Saudi Arabia does most of the work

Saudi Arabia told OPEC it produced 10.563 million barrels a day in October, up from 8.372 million in September. That is its highest since February, when it reported 10.882 million. Riyadh raised output sharply in February ahead of the strikes. Reuters said the rise adds to signs that Gulf producers are restoring exports through workarounds such as ship-to-ship transfers. Saudi output is self-reported to OPEC; other outlets citing the secondary-source table show a lower Saudi number, so treat the exact Saudi level with some care.

Russia's output rose by 41,000 barrels a day to 8.668 million, per the secondary sources. Reuters noted that last month's energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine failed to hold in any meaningful way, but it gave a respite from Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and may have supported production.

Demand outlook unchanged

OPEC left its forecast for 2026 demand growth at 180,000 barrels a day, after cutting it six months in a row. It expects demand to rise by 2.55 million barrels a day in 2027, to an average of 108.3 million, and made no changes to that outlook.

What it means for fuel buyers

Production is not the same as delivery. More barrels pumped helps only if they reach buyers, and the report itself ties the recovery to workarounds around Hormuz. Our markets feed showed WTI near $88.75 and Brent near $96.16 at 10:44 a.m. ET, both up about 2% on the day. Those are continuous-contract quotes, not a specific monthly future. For a trucking firm, a fleet using 3,000 gallons of diesel a month pays $300 more a month for every 10 cents a gallon, so even a modest drop in crude matters more than the headline output number. Crude is tracked on our crude oil chart.

What traders are watching

Whether Saudi exports confirm the production jump, how many ships clear Hormuz, and the next OPEC+ meeting. The group's supply is nearly back, but prices are still reacting to the war, not the quota.

Sources: Reuters via CP24, Reuters via Deccan Herald, OPEC monthly oil market report (as reported). Bloomberg and WSJ also covered the story; their pages were not accessible to us. Calculations are ours. This is market information, not investment advice.