Palantir doubles revenue, but new contracts signed grew only 6%: the number behind the beat

Palantir reported third-quarter results after the close on Monday that beat Wall Street's numbers by a wide margin. Revenue rose 96% from a year earlier to $2.313 billion, and U.S. commercial revenue, up 148% to $984 million, passed U.S. government revenue of $953 million for the first time. CNBC, citing LSEG estimates, put the consensus at $2.18 billion in revenue and 41 cents in adjusted earnings per share. Palantir reported 44 cents.

What the company reported

The figures below come from the press release Palantir filed with the SEC.

Q3 2026	Result
Revenue	$2.313 billion, up 96% year over year, up 20% from Q2
U.S. commercial revenue	$984 million, up 148%
U.S. government revenue	$953 million, up 96%
GAAP operating income	$1.085 billion, a 47% margin
Adjusted operating income	$1.427 billion, a 62% margin
Adjusted free cash flow	$1.216 billion, a 53% margin
Cash and Treasuries	$10.4 billion

Palantir raised full-year revenue guidance to between $8.530 billion and $8.534 billion, and its U.S. commercial guide to more than $3.559 billion, which it says is growth of at least 143%.

The number behind the number

Revenue is what Palantir recognizes now. Total contract value, or TCV, is what customers newly committed to in the quarter, so it shows what future revenue is being built. The release says Palantir closed $2.918 billion of TCV, up 6% year over year. Revenue grew 96% in the same quarter. U.S. commercial TCV was $1.463 billion, up 11%.

The gap is not alarming on its own. TCV is lumpy, and one large renewal in the prior-year quarter can distort a comparison. But it does mean that the headline growth rate is coming from contracts signed earlier and ramping now. The better forward indicator in the release is remaining deal value in U.S. commercial, $6.517 billion, up 79% from a year ago and only 4% from the second quarter.

Then there is the guide. The midpoint of the fourth-quarter revenue range, $2.649 billion to $2.653 billion, is about $2.651 billion. That is roughly 14.6% above the third quarter, against the 20% sequential growth Palantir just posted. Still fast, but a slower sequential pace than the quarter that was just reported. Adjusted operating income is guided at $1.640 billion to $1.644 billion, roughly a 62% margin.

Why the commercial crossover matters

Palantir built its name on government work. U.S. commercial is now 984 of the 1,937 million dollars in U.S. revenue, or about 51%, and 42% of total company revenue. A business that depends more on corporate customers is exposed to corporate budgets and to how quickly those customers move AI projects into production. A government backlog tends to move slower and more predictably.

CEO Alex Karp told CNBC the company is growing without a sales force, and in the release attributed the results to what he calls the Sovereign AI movement. Those are management's characterizations; the filed numbers above are what can be checked.

The stock

According to Nasdaq.com, Palantir closed Monday at $178.34, down 3.13%, and was at $180.00 in after-hours trading at 4:51 PM ET, up 0.93% from the close. Extended-hours moves in the first minutes after a report often change once the earnings call begins at 5:00 PM ET, so treat that number as a snapshot. For background see our running Palantir explainer.

What to watch

On the call and in the 10-Q: whether management speaks to the TCV figure, what share of the fourth-quarter guide is already under contract, and whether the commercial lead holds when the government side re-accelerates.

Sources: Palantir Q3 2026 press release, SEC EDGAR; CNBC; Nasdaq.com quotes; Palantir filings on SEC EDGAR. Percentages derived from the release's figures are our own arithmetic. Some data may be delayed. This is market information, not investment advice.