Pending home sales fall to a 12-year low as 14.5% of deals collapse and all 50 big metros decline

The number of U.S. homes going under contract fell to its lowest level since spring 2014, apart from April 2020, according to Redfin's September report. Seasonally adjusted pending sales dropped 4% from August, the largest monthly decline in more than three years, and fell from a year earlier in every major metro Redfin tracks.

The number behind the headline: deals that die

The 4% drop is the figure on the wires. The one that matters more to anyone with a pipeline is the cancellation rate. Redfin says 14.5% of homebuying deals that went under contract in September were canceled, the highest share on its records other than March and April 2020. Roughly one contract in seven did not close.

It varies sharply by market. Redfin's most-cancelled metros were Jacksonville (19.9%), Tampa (18.8%), Las Vegas (18.6%), San Antonio (18.5%) and Phoenix (18.4%). The lowest were San Francisco at 2.8%, and Nassau County, San Jose, Montgomery County (Pa.) and New York, all under 8%. Redfin ties the pattern to leverage: where buyers have plenty of choice, they walk away over a bad inspection or a payment that does not look as expected.

What 7.40% does to the payment

Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 7.40% on October 8, up from 6.76% on September 10 and 6.30% a year ago on October 9, 2025. Redfin puts the September median sale price at $393,895. Assume 20% down: a loan of $315,116.

• At 6.76%: principal and interest of about $2,046 a month.
• At 7.40%: about $2,182, which is $136 more than a month ago.
• At 6.30% on a loan sized to last year's price (the median was up 1.3% on the year, so about $311,000): about $1,925. The same buyer now pays roughly $256 more.

That is before taxes and insurance, and it is why Redfin says contracts fell as the rate rose through September. Buyers did not stop wanting homes; many stopped qualifying, or stopped liking the number.

Who this lands on

Agents and brokers. Fewer contracts and more collapsed ones means paid-for marketing, showings and inspections that never turn into a commission. In our directory of independent businesses we list 1,185 real estate agent listings in Las Vegas, 772 in San Antonio, 695 in Tampa, 596 in Jacksonville and 514 in Phoenix: all five of the highest-cancellation markets, so a lot of businesses are sharing a shrinking number of closings. (These are business listings in our database, not a count of licensed agents.)

Title offices, inspectors and movers. Their revenue arrives at closing, and Redfin notes that September's closed sales, down 1.6% to the lowest since the end of 2023, were mostly contracts signed in July and August. The September contract slump has not reached the closing table yet. Our reading, not Redfin's: a firm paid per closing should expect the thinner months to be October and November.

Sellers and builders. Redfin says 60.5% of homes sold below their original asking price, 19.8% of sellers with active listings cut their price in September, and total supply hit its highest level since March 2020. The median sale price rose only 1.3% on the year, the smallest gain since February, and Seattle (-4.4%), San Jose (-3.4%) and Denver (-2.6%) saw year-over-year declines.

What to watch

Tuesday's existing home sales release covers closed deals, which lag these contracts, so a soft print would be old news. The signal to track is the weekly mortgage rate each Thursday against the 10-year Treasury yield; our rate chart is at /chart/tnote-10y, and we covered last week's 7.40% reading. More on the housing beat is in our real estate section.

Sources: Redfin (September 2026 housing market report, seasonally adjusted except price and rate data); Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey; Chronicle independent business counts. Payment figures are our calculations on a 30-year fixed loan with 20% down and exclude taxes, insurance and fees. This is market information, not investment advice.