Phillies vs Braves Game 3 tonight: Aaron Nola against opener Ray Kerr after Alec Bohm's 10th-inning homer

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves play a deciding Game 3 of their National League Wild Card Series tonight at 8 PM ET at Truist Park, on NBC and Peacock. The winner plays the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL Division Series. The loser's season is over.

That is why "Phillies" is one of the most searched terms in the United States today, with about 200,000 Google searches. Here is how the series got to a third game and what each side has left.

How Game 2 got here

Philadelphia won Wednesday's game 4-3 in 10 innings. The runs, from the official MLB box score:

Inning	Play	Score (PHI-ATL)
Top 1	Bryce Harper singles, Trea Turner scores	1-0
Bottom 1	Matt Olson singles, Ronald Acuña Jr. scores	1-1
Bottom 7	Drake Baldwin RBI double, then Olson sacrifice fly	1-3
Top 8	Kyle Schwarber and Harper hit back-to-back homers	3-3
Top 10	Alec Bohm solo homer	4-3

Tyler Mahle held Philadelphia to one run over seven innings for Atlanta. The Phillies did their damage against the bullpen: Dylan Lee, who won Game 1, gave up both eighth-inning homers, and Didier Fuentes took the loss on Bohm's shot. For Philadelphia, Cristopher Sánchez threw 116 pitches over 6.2 innings and walked five, and Andrew Painter got the win with three scoreless innings in relief.

Tonight's pitching

The Phillies plan to start Aaron Nola, MLB.com reported, citing sources. His season was uneven: a 4.67 ERA and a 7-12 record over 33 starts and 175.1 innings, by MLB's official stats, and a 4.50 ERA in three starts against Atlanta. MLB.com wrote that Zack Wheeler could start on short rest and will pitch in relief if he does not, and that Jesús Luzardo and Painter both say they are available.

Atlanta is using an opener. Left-hander Ray Kerr starts so he can face Harper and Schwarber in the first inning; left-handed hitters are 4-for-23 against him. Kerr has a 1.47 ERA in 18.1 innings since his Aug. 17 season debut. Grant Holmes (10-6, 3.44 ERA in 151.2 innings) is expected to take the bulk of the game after him.

Who is hurt and who is hot

• Phillies: Edmundo Sosa left Game 2 with a right leg injury and his status is unclear. If he sits, MLB.com expects Harper at first base and Derek Hill in right field. Luis Arraez is off the series roster with a sprained ankle. Bohm is 3-for-8 with a homer in the series.
• Braves: Michael Harris II is 4-for-8 and Mauricio Dubón 3-for-9. Acuña is 0-for-6. Riley's Game 1 homer is still Atlanta's only one of the series. Closer Raisel Iglesias, Fuentes and Lee all pitched in both games but should be available, and Robert Suarez, back from an elbow problem, has not pitched yet.

The odds turned into a coin flip

The betting market has moved hard in two days. Before Game 1, Atlanta was priced at -177 to -196 on our sportsbook board, roughly a two-in-three chance. For tonight, the nine books on the board have the Braves between -103 and -112 and the Phillies between -107 and -113. Both sides work out to about 51% to 53% before the bookmaker's margin, which means the market sees no real favorite. The run total is 7.5 at every book.

History was on Atlanta's side after Tuesday. MLB.com noted that in the best-of-three Wild Card format, home teams that won Game 1 had gone on to win the series all nine times. A Phillies win tonight would be the first exception. Philadelphia's own record in win-or-go-home games is 1-3: it won Game 5 of the 1980 NLCS and lost Game 7 of the 2023 NLCS.

Follow it live on our MLB scores page, and see the Division Series dates on the MLB schedule. Our Game 1 story covers Austin Riley's homer off Jhoan Duran.

Sources: MLB Stats API official box score, schedule and season stats; MLB.com; moneylines and totals from our odds board as of 1:20 PM ET Oct. 1, converted to implied probability by us. This is sports information, not betting advice.