Red Sox vs Yankees: Boston faces elimination in Game 2 tonight without Roman Anthony, Gray vs Fried

The Boston Red Sox play for their season tonight at Yankee Stadium. Game 2 of the best-of-three American League Wild Card Series starts at 8 PM ET on NBC and Peacock, with Sonny Gray pitching for Boston against Max Fried, according to MLB.com and MLB's official schedule. A Yankees win ends the series and sends New York to the Division Series against Tampa Bay. A Red Sox win forces Game 3, again in the Bronx.

Boston loses Roman Anthony for the series, and beyond

The bigger news broke this afternoon. Roman Anthony, Boston's 22-year-old leadoff hitter, was taken off the Wild Card roster after imaging in Boston showed new strains to muscles in his right wrist on top of the finger and wrist injury that cost him nearly four months this season, MLB.com reported. He left Game 1 after striking out in both of his at-bats.

The roster rules make this worse than one game. A player removed from the roster mid-round cannot play in the next round, so Anthony would also miss the Division Series against the Rays if Boston comes back. Curtis Mead, who broke his left wrist in his second at-bat after Boston acquired him on July 28, takes his spot. Anthony hit .262 with four homers in his final 103 regular-season at-bats. Manager Chad Tracy said he hopes rest, not surgery, will be enough.

The number behind Game 1

The 9-0 score was not a one-night blip for Boston's hitters. The official box score has the Red Sox at three hits and 11 strikeouts. Cam Schlittler struck out 10 over 6 1/3 scoreless innings on a career-high 117 pitches, and Ben Rice hit two homers, including a grand slam, and drove in six.

That fits the month Boston just had. From September 1 to 28, the Red Sox scored 71 runs in 24 games, fewest in the majors and just under three a game, with a .219 average and a .651 OPS, per the MLB Stats API. A lineup that cold now loses its leadoff hitter and faces a left-hander, which is why Tracy's Game 2 order has Jahmai Jones leading off and Nate Eaton in left.

Tonight's matchup

Season lines from the MLB Stats API; head-to-head figures from MLB.com. Gray, 36 and a former Yankee, is 1-3 with a 3.26 ERA in six career postseason starts. Fried has a 1.93 career regular-season ERA against Boston, but his last two playoff starts for New York went badly: 6 1/3 scoreless innings in a loss to Boston a year ago, then seven runs allowed at Toronto. He missed time this summer with a left elbow bone bruise.

Both bullpens are rested. Boston did not use Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock or Garrett Crochet on Tuesday, though Crochet has not pitched in a game since April 25. New York did not need closer David Bednar.

What the prices and the history say

On our odds board, updated at noon, nine sportsbooks had the Yankees between -129 and -142 and Boston between +110 and +120. DraftKings had New York -136 and Boston +113. Strip out the bookmaker's margin and that is roughly a 55% chance of a Yankees win tonight and 45% for Boston.

Boston needs two straight road wins. Priced like tonight's game, that is about 0.45 x 0.45, or 20%, a rough guide only because Game 3 starters are not named. History is harsher: teams that won Game 1 of a three-game Wild Card Series have won 21 of 24 times, and home teams that went up 1-0 have won all nine, MLB.com noted. The one comeback the Yankees know best is their own: they lost Game 1 to Boston last year and won the series.

New York is doing this without Aaron Judge, who is off the Wild Card roster with a right calf strain. He took live at-bats in Double-A Somerset today and has not been ruled out for the Division Series, MLB.com reported. Background is in our Judge injury story.

The Yankees finished 93-68 and Boston 87-75. Follow the game on our MLB scores board and the rest of the round on the MLB schedule. The NL side of the bracket is in our Cubs vs Padres preview.

Sources: MLB Stats API (schedule, Game 1 box score, season pitching lines, standings, September team hitting), MLB.com, CBS Sports, sportsbook lines via our odds board. Betting lines are shown for information only and are not a recommendation.