Cubs vs Padres: San Diego leads 1-0 after an 8-0 rout, and Chicago must win Game 2 tonight

The San Diego Padres beat the Chicago Cubs 8-0 on Tuesday night in Game 1 of their best-of-three National League Wild Card Series at Petco Park. Game 2 is tonight at 10 PM ET in San Diego on NBC's Peacock and NBCSN, with Kevin Gausman starting for Chicago against Nick Pivetta, according to MLB's official schedule. A Padres win sends them to Milwaukee for the Division Series. A Cubs win forces Game 3, also in San Diego.

How Game 1 went

Michael King carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning and finished with seven innings of one-hit ball: no runs, three walks and eight strikeouts on 97 pitches, per the official box score. Nico Hoerner broke up the bid with one out in the seventh on a soft infield single, the Cubs' first hit after an 0-for-20 start, MLB.com reported. Chicago finished with three hits.

San Diego scored twice in the first. Fernando Tatis Jr. homered on the first pitch he saw and Manny Machado went deep two batters later, both off Cubs starter Matthew Boyd. Xander Bogaerts added a third homer in the fourth. MLB.com noted all three came on Boyd changeups left in the zone, the first time in his career he had allowed three homers on that pitch in one game. Boyd lasted four innings and allowed four runs. The Padres finished with 13 hits in front of 47,084.

The top of Chicago's order did nothing. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman went a combined 0 for 7 with six strikeouts.

Tonight's matchup

	Kevin Gausman (CHC)	Nick Pivetta (SD)
2026 starts	32 (23 with Toronto, 9 with Chicago)	8
ERA	4.51 overall, 4.83 with Chicago	2.86
Innings	177 2/3	34 2/3
Strikeouts	184	42

Season lines from the MLB Stats API. Pivetta's sample is small: CBS Sports notes he has been excellent since returning from elbow trouble. Gausman has been hittable since he joined the Cubs from Toronto.

Sportsbooks agree with that read. DraftKings, as carried by ESPN, has San Diego at -145 and Chicago at +120, with the Padres line moving from -137 at the open. Remove the bookmaker's margin and those prices imply about a 57% chance of a Padres win tonight and 43% for the Cubs. The total is 7 runs.

What the Cubs are up against

The history is harsh. Since the best-of-three format arrived in 2022, only one of 16 Game 1 losers has come back to win the series, CBS Sports found: last year's Yankees over the Red Sox. Just four others forced a Game 3.

The arithmetic tells the same story. Chicago now needs two straight wins in San Diego. If Game 3 were priced like tonight's game, two Cubs wins in a row would come to roughly 0.43 x 0.43, or about 19%. That is only a rough guide, because Game 3 starters are not yet announced.

Why the 8-0 score may overstate the gap

The lopsided result hides a real case for Chicago. CBS Sports points out the Cubs outscored opponents by 147 runs in the regular season, the third-best run differential in baseball, against San Diego's 41, and did it against a tougher schedule. MLB.com lists the Cubs as the majors' leader in runs (850), walks, slugging and OPS. CBS adds that Chicago ranked second in road OPS and third against right-handed pitching. Pivetta is a righty.

The standings point the other way: San Diego finished 91-71 and 51-30 at home, while Chicago went 89-73. And the Padres' bullpen, which MLB.com calls the best in the sport, stayed fresh. King's seven innings meant San Diego needed only Yuki Matsui and Joe Musgrove to finish, leaving Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon rested for tonight.

Chicago's own weakness also showed up on Tuesday. Its pitchers allowed 231 home runs this season, most in the National League, according to MLB.com.

Follow Game 2 live on our MLB scores board, and see the rest of the Wild Card round on the MLB schedule. For the Cubs' path into October, see our earlier Cubs coverage.

Sources: MLB Stats API (box score, schedule, season pitching lines), MLB.com, CBS Sports, DraftKings odds via ESPN. Betting lines are shown for information only and are not a recommendation.