Sarepta lifts its 2026 sales floor to $1.25 billion, but even the top end implies a weaker fourth quarter

Sarepta Therapeutics reported third-quarter net product revenue of $323.8 million after the close on Thursday and raised the bottom of its 2026 product revenue guidance by $50 million, to a range of $1.25 billion to $1.3 billion. The earnings release, filed with the SEC, shows the company is shrinking its Duchenne gene therapy sales and leaning on its older exon-skipping drugs to hold the line.

The number behind the number

The headline is a raise, but the arithmetic is more cautious. Product revenue for the first nine months of 2026 was $983.0 million. Subtract that from the guidance range and the fourth quarter is implied at roughly $267 million to $317 million. The third quarter was $323.8 million. So even the top of the new range has fourth-quarter product sales a little below the third, and the bottom has them falling by about 18%. That is our calculation from the filed figures, not a company statement.

The company also said it expects Elevidys net product revenue in the fourth quarter to trend in line with the third quarter, at about $83.5 million. If that holds, the gap would have to come from the PMO franchise, which the release says "remains strong" and which produced $240.3 million in the third quarter. Management did not say in the release which way it expects PMO sales to move.

Why the year-over-year picture is mixed

Product revenue fell 12.5% from $370.0 million a year earlier, and nine-month product revenue is down 34%, from $1.49 billion to $983.0 million. Sarepta attributes the decline to lower Elevidys volume after its label was narrowed to ambulatory patients. Total revenue fell less, 5%, because collaboration and other revenue nearly doubled. The release says that line included a $31.4 million increase in contract manufacturing revenue tied to Elevidys supply delivered to Roche.

The loss narrowed mainly because spending fell. Research and development was $82.5 million, against $218.9 million a year ago, when Sarepta paid Arrowhead Pharmaceutical a $100 million milestone for its DM1 program. The release also flags a $62.0 million charge in cost of sales for non-cancelable manufacturing commitments with Catalent for inventory it chose not to make, and write-offs of certain batches that missed quality specifications under the Roche agreement. Cost of sales rose to $188.5 million from $150.8 million.

Cash and the next catalyst

Cash, equivalents, restricted cash and investments were about $998.7 million at September 30, up from $953.8 million at the end of 2025. The company also lowered the top of its combined non-GAAP R&D and SG&A expense guidance by $25 million, to $800 million to $825 million.

The stock story is the pipeline. Sarepta expects multiple-ascending-dose data from SRP-1003 in myotonic dystrophy type 1 and SRP-1001 in facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy in the fourth quarter, and says it is already preparing for Phase 3 in both, including starting manufacturing of clinical supply. CEO Michael Severino, who said he is 90 days into the job, told investors, "We have work to do, and I want us to be measured by execution."

What the stock was doing

Sarepta closed Thursday at $17.51, down 7.8% in a session when technology shares sold off hard, according to Nasdaq.com. Its 52-week range is $14.68 to $24.68. The results were released after the close, and we could not confirm an after-hours reaction at the time of writing.

What we are watching: whether Elevidys holds near $83.5 million as promised, whether PMO sales cover the implied fourth-quarter gap, and what the two muscular dystrophy datasets show before the year ends.

Sources: Sarepta Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 on SEC EDGAR; Nasdaq.com market data; Seeking Alpha reported the headline results. Implied fourth-quarter figures and percentage changes are Chronicle calculations from the filed income statement. This is market information, not investment advice.