Chip ETF SMH is 14.9% below its October 5 high and already under its 150-day average
A widely repeated view says the semiconductor ETF could fall back to its 150-day average. By Friday's close it was already 1.7% below it. Micron's own results do not say what the claim says.
One market strategist's comment doing the rounds says the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is "down about 15% in October" and could pull back to its 150-day moving average, and that Micron is "booked out to 2028." We checked each piece against price data and Micron's filing. The first two have a wrinkle, and the third we could not confirm.
The price facts
| As of the Oct. 16 close | SMH | Micron (MU) |
|---|---|---|
| Close | $539.79 | $878.84 |
| October high (close) | $633.90 (Oct. 5) | $1,097.39 (Oct. 1) |
| From the October high | -14.9% | -19.9% |
| Since Sept. 30 close | -11.4% | -17.5% |
| 150-day average of closes | $548.92 | $827.83 |
| Versus 150-day average | 1.7% below | 6.2% above |
Source: Yahoo Finance daily closes; the 150-day figure is a simple average of the last 150 sessions' closes, our calculation. Data providers that adjust differently may show slightly different values.
So "down about 15% in October" is right if measured from the October 5 high (14.9%). Measured from the end of September, SMH is down 11.4%. Both are real; they are different yardsticks.
The 150-day average is not below the price, it is above it
The suggestion that SMH "can get back down to" its 150-day average, and that this would be a normal pullback, assumes the ETF is still above that line. On our calculation it closed Friday at $539.79 against a 150-day average of $548.92. The average itself was rising (about $535.56 ten sessions earlier), but the price has already crossed beneath it. Micron is a different case: still 6.2% above its own 150-day average.
Micron "booked through 2028"
We read Micron's fiscal fourth-quarter results, filed September 30 with the SEC. The release does not contain the phrase or any 2028 supply statement. What it does show is $12.747 billion of proceeds from customer contract liability deposits in the fiscal year's cash flow statement, which we covered in our Micron results report. Customers paying in advance is consistent with tight supply, but it is not the same as a disclosed 2028 sell-out. The earnings-per-share and valuation multiples quoted alongside the claim are likewise not in the release, so we do not repeat them.
Context
The drop fits the AI-funding sell-off that hit Asian chip names hardest last week (SK Hynix, Samsung and Advantest) and the credit stress at CoreWeave (report). A moving average is a chart reference many traders watch, not a floor.
Sources: Yahoo Finance; Micron Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 (SEC EDGAR). This is market information, not investment advice.
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