S&P 500 rose in the 12 months after all 19 midterm elections since 1950; we get a 14.8% average, not 15.5%

With the midterm vote on November 3 and the Nasdaq 100 down 6.5% from its October 6 closing high, a set of midterm statistics is circulating: the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every midterm election since 1950, the average worst drawdown in a midterm year is about 17.5%, and the average gain in the following 12 months is about 15.5%. We did not take those on trust. We rebuilt them from daily S&P 500 closes. Two of the three reproduce exactly. The third is a little lower.

How we measured

For each of the 19 midterm elections from 1950 to 2022, we took the S&P 500 close on Election Day and compared it with the close on the same calendar date a year later. Worst drawdown is the largest fall from a closing high to a later closing low inside that calendar year. These are price returns, without dividends, from Yahoo Finance's S&P 500 history. The file starts on January 16, 1950, so the 1950 drawdown runs from that date.

What checks out and what does not

19 for 19: confirmed. Every one of the 12-month windows ended higher. The weakest was 1986 at +1.1%, the strongest 1954 at +30.5%.

Average worst drawdown of 17.5%: confirmed. Our mean is 17.5%. Six of the 19 years fell at least 20% from a closing high at some point (1962, 1966, 1970, 1974, 2002 and 2022), and three more came within a point of it (1990, 1998 and 2018).

Average 12-month gain of 15.5%: not reproduced. Our mean is 14.8% and the median is 14.5%. A different start point, such as the midterm-year low rather than Election Day, would give a different number, so we publish only the figure we can reproduce.

Where 2026 sits

As of Friday's close, the S&P 500 was 7,659.44, 2.0% below its October 6 closing high of 7,818.93. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,140.03, 5.3% below its October 6 high of 27,599.79, and the Nasdaq 100 at 29,187.55, 6.5% below its high of 31,224.47. The deepest closing-basis drawdown for the S&P 500 so far this year is 9.1%, roughly half the midterm-year average, so by this measure 2026 has not yet had the typical midterm-year air pocket.

The limits of the statistic

Nineteen data points is a small sample, and each midterm came with its own backdrop: 1974 was a recession and an oil shock, 2002 the tail of a bear market, 2022 a year of aggressive rate hikes. A record that has never failed is not a rule, and it says nothing about the path in between: in 1974 the index fell 37.6% inside the year and still finished the following 12 months up 18.7% from Election Day. For traders, the figures describe history. They are not a forecast for this November. Today's backdrop includes oil near $100, a 10-year yield above 5% and a sell-off in AI-linked stocks, covered in our pre-market brief.

Sources: Yahoo Finance index history; the Chronicle's calculation. Past performance is not a guide to future results. This is market information, not investment advice.