SpaceX reports tonight: Wall Street wants $12.72B revenue and 13 cents a share, options price a 6% move

SpaceX (SPCX) is due to report third-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, October 20, its second report since going public in June. As of this writing, 2:15 PM New York time, the numbers are not out. This is what the market is set up for.

What analysts expect

According to CNBC's live coverage, LSEG consensus is revenue of $12.72 billion and earnings of 13 cents a share. CNBC, citing StreetAccount, lists the segment expectations:

AI is the swing factor. Mizuho analyst Brett Linzey wrote that consensus has AI revenue of $6.30 billion, up 146% from $2.56 billion in the second quarter, with AI adjusted EBITDA of $3.32 billion versus $1.15 billion. Oppenheimer is more measured and expects an "in-line" quarter with guidance reiterated.

What options are pricing

Options market-makers are pricing about a 6% swing after the report, per Cboe LiveVol data cited by CNBC's Options Action. After the first report in August the stock fell 13%. Implied volatility was about 62 on Monday against above 110 before the August report, according to ThinkOrSwim.

Monday's volume was 1.1 million contracts, 20% above the 30-day average, with 665,000 of them calls. Positioning is not a forecast; a put is as often insurance as a view.

What can overshadow the numbers

• Capex. In August, SpaceX reported $18.4 billion of capital spending, 80% of it for AI. CNBC notes that figure spooked investors. Debt and finance leases rose to $36.8 billion in Q2 from $22 billion.
• Lockups. CNBC reports a scheduled share release two days after earnings and another on October 26, together more than 1.6 billion eligible shares. Earlier releases in September had no discernible effect.
• Funding costs. CoreWeave and Nebius are down 28% in October and IREN about 35% on worries about rates and debt, CNBC says. SpaceX is less reliant on cloud, but borrowing costs matter to its build-out. See our earlier look at its $40 billion GPU debt plan.
• Starlink mobile. The 800 MHz spectrum purchase, which we covered here, will draw questions about partnering with or competing against carriers.

Where the stock stands

CNBC puts shares at about $147.50 on Tuesday morning against the $150 June 12 opening price, a market value of roughly $2 trillion. The post-IPO low was $104.83 on August 3.

We will update when the results are out. For the pattern in how the options market has handled this stock, see our earlier options story.

Sources: CNBC live updates and Options Action, Oct 20 2026; LSEG, StreetAccount, Cboe LiveVol and Barchart data as cited there. Results not yet released at publication. This is market information, not investment advice.