Dow jumps 1,144 points as oil falls and chips rebound, even with Nvidia down 5%
At about 1:50 PM ET the Dow is up 2.2%, the S&P 500 up 2.4% and the Nasdaq up 2.7%, with the semiconductor index up 6.6% while Nvidia, the biggest chip name, is down 5.2% on the board probe of its CEO.
Stocks are rallying hard on Monday afternoon. At about 1:50 PM ET, per Yahoo Finance data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 52,430, up 1,144 points or 2.2% from Friday's close of 51,286. The S&P 500 was at 7,554, up 2.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite at 25,232, up 2.7%. These are intraday prints and can change by the close. Bloomberg's headline this morning described an "oil relief-driven rally"; we could not read the full article, so we rely on its headline and on the price data below.
The number behind the number
| Measure | Friday close | About 1:50 PM ET | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 51,285.7 | 52,429.5 | +2.2% |
| S&P 500 | 7,376.9 | 7,554.5 | +2.4% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 24,579.4 | 25,232.1 | +2.7% |
| Semiconductor index (SOX) | 9,390.3 | 10,009.3 | +6.6% |
| Nvidia | $186.64 | $177.00 | -5.2% |
| WTI crude (front month) | $90.83 | $87.76 | -3.4% |
| Brent (front month) | $98.32 | $93.69 | -4.7% |
Source: Yahoo Finance; Nvidia also checked against Nasdaq.com quote data at 1:51 PM ET. Changes are our arithmetic.
What everyone may be getting wrong
The obvious read of the Nvidia news is that it should drag the sector. It has not. Nvidia's board is investigating CEO Jensen Huang over an affair with an alleged spy, as we reported in our Nvidia update, and the stock is down about 14% from its Nov. 3 close of $206.69. Yet the semiconductor index is up 6.6% today. The market is treating this as a company-specific governance story, not a verdict on chips.
It is also a partial retrace, not a recovery. Chips fell from 10,268.7 on Nov. 4 to 9,011.1 on Nov. 5, the rout we covered in our Nasdaq correction story. Today's level is still 2.5% under the Nov. 4 close and 24.3% under the Oct. 6 peak. The S&P 500 is 1.7% below its Nov. 4 close of 7,688.6, and the Dow is 1.7% below 53,356.1.
Oil is doing the lifting
Crude is the other leg. WTI is at its lowest in about a month, after President Trump said new strikes on Iran were unlikely while talks continue, as we reported in our oil story. Gold futures are up 1.0% to $4,114, per Yahoo Finance. The 10-year Treasury yield, however, is roughly flat near 4.88%. So this is not a rates-relief rally: borrowing costs are not falling.
Who it hits
A trucking firm burning 50,000 gallons of diesel a month sees a crude drop show at the pump only after a lag of days to weeks, and only if it holds. The move is far more immediate for anyone with a 401(k) or a stock-linked loan covenant. A contractor or restaurant owner on a floating-rate line gets nothing from today's equity gains while the 10-year sits near 4.9% and a December rate hike is still being debated, as we laid out in our jobs report story.
What to watch
Tuesday's October consumer price index (8:30 AM ET, BLS schedule) is the next test of whether a rally built on cheaper oil survives a hot inflation print. Nvidia's next earnings date is Nov. 17. Our markets page has the live board, and the 4:35 PM close story will have final numbers.
Sources: Yahoo Finance; Nasdaq.com; Bloomberg and Nasdaq.com headlines (article text not read); BLS; Chronicle reporting. Some data may be delayed. This is market information, not investment advice.
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