The Nightcap: stock futures rebound 0.4% after a 5.10% 10-year yield, gold regains $3,900
S&P 500 futures are 0.43% above their 4 PM level as of 8:50 PM ET, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.61%. Applied Materials guided above $11 billion and Cerebras jumped, while Friday brings producer prices.
The biggest thing tonight is a bounce that has not fixed the problem behind it. Thursday's session ended with the S&P 500 down 0.35% at 7,592.40 as bonds reopened after the holiday and the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 5.10% from 4.98% on Tuesday, according to the U.S. Treasury. Futures are higher tonight, but the yield and the Fed hike traders see coming in December are unchanged. Our closing report has the day.
Futures at about 8:50 PM ET
| Instrument | Level | At 4 PM ET | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,647.75 | 7,615.00 | +0.43% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 28,562.50 | 28,388.50 | +0.61% |
| Dow futures | 52,544 | 52,390 | +0.29% |
| Gold futures | $3,912.70 | $3,879.10 | +0.87% |
Quotes from Yahoo Finance, last bars at 8:50 PM ET (the Dow contract at 8:49). Percent moves are our arithmetic against each contract's own 4 PM bar, not against the cash index, because futures carry a premium to cash. For reference, the cash closes were 7,592.40 (S&P 500), 25,366.09 (Nasdaq Composite) and 52,297.09 (Dow).
Gold is the instrument to watch. It fell to a one-year low under $3,900 on rate-hike fears and has recovered about 0.9% overnight to $3,912.70, still below the $4,000 it held on Wednesday. Our gold report covers the slide. WTI crude futures are at $88.19, down 0.6% from the $88.74 settlement, and Brent is $95.25 against $95.82, after a day when Houthi claims on a Saudi pipeline lifted prices.
After-hours: chip equipment and AI chips
Applied Materials reported record fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $10.41 billion, up 53% from a year earlier, with non-GAAP earnings of $4.16 a share, in its earnings release filed with the SEC. It guided first-quarter revenue to $11.1 billion, plus or minus $500 million, and non-GAAP EPS to $4.35, plus or minus 20 cents. The stock closed at $380.95, down 3.6%, and traded near $383.58 at 8 PM ET, about 0.7% higher, per Nasdaq and Yahoo Finance data. Cerebras is the larger mover, up 17% after hours; see our Cerebras report for why its guidance still trails analysts.
Nvidia, which closed at $166.19 after CEO Jensen Huang resigned, is the overhang on the whole group. It reports November 17 with Colette Kress as interim CEO.
What to watch at the open
- Producer prices, Friday. Kitco lists the October PPI for 8:30 AM ET. We could not reach the BLS schedule from our systems, so confirm the time. After Tuesday's hot consumer inflation report, a firm reading would back the case for a hike on December 9.
- The 10-year. Holding above 5% is the test, with the 30-year at 5.43%.
- Next week: retail sales and Nvidia's results on November 17.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, U.S. Treasury, SEC EDGAR, Nasdaq, Kitco. Quotes may be delayed. This is market information, not investment advice.
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