The Nightcap: futures flat after the rally as Take-Two jumps 4% on GTA VI and CPI looms

Futures are quiet after Monday's big rebound, and the whole market is waiting on one number: October consumer prices, due at 8:30 AM ET Tuesday, per the BLS schedule. The S&P 500 closed up 2.35% at 7,549.94, its best day since April, as we reported in our close. Overnight, traders are holding that gain, not adding to it.

Where futures trade, 9:00 PM ET

Prices from Yahoo Finance, taken about 9:00 PM ET. Equity futures are compared with their 4:00 PM print, gold and oil with Monday's settlements ($4,146.50, $86.85 and $92.57). Futures sit above the cash index (the S&P 500 closed at 7,549.94) because of the usual carry, so we do not measure against the cash close.

The big thing: CPI at 8:30 AM

Rates and oil are the swing factors. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.88%, per the Treasury, and futures priced about a 65% chance of a December Fed hike last week, per Reuters/LSEG data in our morning brief. We did not find a consensus forecast from a primary source, so we are not quoting one. A reading that surprises either way moves the December odds, and futures would reprice within seconds.

Monday's $3.98 slide in WTI comes after October ended, so it is not in this report.

After-hours earnings

Take-Two (TTWO) traded at $216.37 at 7:59 PM, up about 4.3% from its $207.40 close, per Yahoo Finance and Nasdaq. In its 8-K release, fiscal second-quarter net bookings fell 18% to $1.60 billion and the GAAP net loss was $54.0 million, or $0.29 a share. The company reiterated its $8.0 to $8.2 billion net bookings outlook for the year, and CEO Strauss Zelnick said Grand Theft Auto VI is ten days away, with pre-orders at "unprecedented levels." We have not confirmed what drove the after-hours buying.

Occidental (OXY) was little changed at $55.91, up about 0.2%. Its release showed adjusted earnings of $1.91 a share against $1.43 in the Nasdaq earnings calendar's forecast, principal debt down to $10.0 billion, and output of 1,427 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day. Its third-quarter average WTI price was $85.79, almost exactly where WTI trades tonight. A conference call follows Tuesday.

Nvidia edged up about 1% after hours from its $178.67 close following Monday's 4.3% drop; see our update. After-hours volume is thin, so these moves can fade by the open.

Headlines to watch

• Iran: President Trump called the war "effectively over" while keeping the blockade; see our War Room story. Oil's direction depends on it.
• Trade: China extended its 24% tariff suspension to January 10, 2027, covered here.
• Washington: a House impeachment vote on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is forced this week, per our report.

Tomorrow's open

CPI at 8:30 AM ET comes first. Before the bell, the Nasdaq calendar lists TransDigm, Sea and Venture Global; Petrobras and Alcon report after the close. CoreWeave, Cisco and Applied Materials report later this week.

Sources: Yahoo Finance; Nasdaq; SEC EDGAR (Occidental and Take-Two 8-Ks); U.S. Treasury; BLS; Reuters/LSEG via the Chronicle. Some data may be delayed. This is market information, not investment advice.