The Nightcap: France riots days before a budget vote, with S&P 500 futures 1.13% lower at Friday's settle

Futures are closed for the weekend and reopen at 6 PM ET Sunday, so there are no live index prices tonight. Everything below is as of Friday's settle unless a time is given. The headline that matters most for Monday's open is in Europe: nationwide cost-of-living protests turned into riots in France on Saturday, days before a make-or-break budget vote.

France: riots, record debt and a vote on Tuesday

Fortune reported that protests over the cost of living swept France on Saturday, with luxury boutiques and supermarkets looted and some public buildings set on fire. The Financial Times and Reuters carried similar headlines tonight, describing the worst riots in years; we have only read Fortune's account in full.

The market link is the budget. According to Fortune, French bond yields are at their highest in 24 years, public debt is a record 119% of GDP, and Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu faces a first vote in the National Assembly on Tuesday on a 2027 budget that would cut the deficit to 5% of GDP from 5.4%. Eurasia Group's Mujtaba Rahman warned that if the budget fails, the cost of servicing French debt could balloon. That is an analyst's warning, not a forecast we are making. What to watch Sunday evening: the euro (EUR/USD last showed 1.1239 on our board) and the gap between French and German government yields when Europe opens Monday.

Where U.S. futures settled Friday

Equity futures settlements are as recorded in Friday's Nightcap; the Dow and gold quotes are from the Chronicle markets board captured at 9:01 PM ET Saturday and reflect the last trades of the Friday session; the yield is from the U.S. Treasury par curve; Brent is from our Weekend brief.

The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.49% on the week, with the 10-year yield above 5% and Brent near $110. Our Weekend brief has the Russia sanctions waiver and the week's totals, so we will not repeat them.

SoftBank and Allied Universal

An Investing.com item citing the Wall Street Journal says SoftBank is in early talks to acquire the security-services firm Allied Universal for up to $18 billion. We could not read the full report, so we have no detail on structure or financing, and early talks often come to nothing. The New York Times ran a separate Saturday piece on weak links in AI-related borrowing that names SoftBank among the borrowers; we have not read it in full either.

Rates and housing

Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage rate was 7.40% on October 15, unchanged from October 8, up from 7.28% on October 1, per its published history. With the 10-year at 5.09%, a drop below 7% before the holidays, the question HousingWire is asking, would take a sizable fall in Treasury yields first. A week of France-driven volatility could move yields in either direction.

What to watch at Monday's open

• Sunday, 6 PM ET: futures reopen. The first prints show how markets price the France headlines and the Hormuz shipping attacks.
• Tuesday, Oct. 20: French budget vote; U.S. building permits (forecast 1.395 million, prior 1.394 million).
• Thursday, Oct. 22: jobless claims (forecast 200,000, prior 199,000). Friday, Oct. 23: flash S&P Global composite PMI (prior 58.4).
• Wednesday, Oct. 28: Fed rate decision. The funds rate on our board is 3.88%.

Crypto trades through the weekend: at 9:01 PM ET Coinbase showed Bitcoin at $81,451 and Ether at $2,404.

Sources: Fortune, Financial Times and Reuters headlines, Investing.com, Freddie Mac, U.S. Treasury, Chronicle markets board and calendar, Coinbase. This is market information, not investment advice.