The Nightcap: futures edge up before the Fed, with a 95% hold priced and Microsoft and Alphabet due Wednesday

The biggest thing on the calendar is the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday, and futures are barely moving ahead of it. Traders are paying for a hold: in Robinhood's prediction markets, the "maintain rates" contract for October traded at 95 cents on the dollar at 7:30 PM ET, against 6 for a quarter-point hike and 1 for a cut. Those are real-money prices, not a forecast, and they come from a market with more than $2.4 million traded. The Fed raised its target to 3.75%-4% in September on a unanimous vote, per its minutes.

Futures and gold at 9:01 PM ET

Index futures from the Chronicle markets board at 9:01 PM ET; cash closes and gold futures from Yahoo Finance. The board quotes continuous contracts, so a small gap to cash is not a signal. Our board's oil quote runs $1 to $2 above Yahoo's settlement ($100.21 for front-month WTI), so we are not calling an overnight oil move.

Rates, the dollar and Bitcoin

The Treasury's par curve had the 10-year at 4.99% on Tuesday, from 5.00%, and the 2-year at 4.70%, from 4.68%. The 2-year sitting about 80 basis points above the 3.88% effective funds rate shows the bond market still leans toward more increases, so the wording of the statement matters more than the decision. The dollar index is 102.06. Bitcoin is $80,586, up 0.82% over 24 hours on Coinbase, and Ether is $2,341.

After-hours and tomorrow

CNBC reported that SK Hynix posted record third-quarter revenue and operating profit, with sales above 100 trillion won for the first time, up 327.9% from a year earlier. It plans to return about 100 trillion won to shareholders and says its high-bandwidth memory is sold under long-term agreements with 14 customers covering more than half of 2027 and 2028 capacity. The result extends the AI-spending story that lifted tech on Tuesday.

That theme gets its next test Wednesday after the close. Microsoft and Alphabet are both listed as reporting after hours on the Nasdaq earnings calendar, the same day as the Fed. Weekly jobless claims follow Thursday, with a forecast of 199,000 against 194,000 before, and the October jobs report arrives Nov. 6. Our economic calendar has the full list.

Sources: Chronicle markets board, Yahoo Finance, U.S. Treasury, Robinhood prediction markets, CNBC, Nasdaq, Coinbase. Quotes may be delayed. This is market information, not investment advice.