Fewer people are flying as fares jump: TSA screenings run 2% below last year

Airfares are up sharply from a year ago, and the Transportation Security Administration's own checkpoint counts show fewer people are flying. We added up the daily figures on TSA's passenger volumes page and compared them with the 2025 page, lining up the same days of the week.

The sums and percentages are our own arithmetic from TSA's published daily numbers. The busiest single day last week was Sunday, October 18, at 2,931,779 screenings, versus 2,988,255 on Sunday, October 19, 2025, a drop of 1.9%.

What it means for the traveler

Two things can be true together. Demand is slightly lower than last year, yet airlines are cutting capacity faster, so seats still sell at higher prices. In its filing Delta said December-quarter seats will grow less than 2% while revenue grows about 20%. Our own earlier story covered the 23.4% year-over-year airfare increase. A 2% dip in passengers has not yet pushed fares down.

The Thanksgiving benchmark

TSA's 2025 page shows last year's peak: 3,134,613 people on Sunday, November 30, 2025, followed by 2,893,451 on December 1 and 2,753,036 on Wednesday, November 26. Thanksgiving Day itself, November 27, 2025, was the lightest day of that stretch at 1,559,165. In 2026 Thanksgiving falls on November 26. Last year's pattern is a guide to which days are busiest, not a forecast for this year, and TSA has not yet published its 2026 holiday projection that we could find.

What to do

• Thanksgiving fliers: the Sunday after the holiday (November 29, 2026) is the day last year's data says to expect the longest lines; Thanksgiving Day itself is the quietest.
• Expect your airport to feel normal: checkpoint volumes are close to last year's, so the price, not the crowd, is the change.
• Companies with travel budgets: two straight weeks of lower volumes at higher prices means each trip costs more; compare totals, not trip counts, with last year.

One caution: one or two weeks is a short window, and holiday timing, weather and airline schedule changes can move a week by a point or two. We will update when TSA publishes its Thanksgiving forecast.

Sources: TSA checkpoint passenger volumes, 2026 and 2025, read October 20, 2026; Delta Air Lines 8-K on SEC EDGAR. This is travel information, not financial advice.