US pitches NATO-Russia Council revival to Moscow and Kyiv on the eve of Abu Dhabi talks

The first three-way talks on ending the war in Ukraine since February are due to open in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, Nov. 10, and the US is arriving with a security framework rather than a map. Senior US officials told reporters on the eve of the meeting that Moscow and Kyiv are showing "a little bit of flexibility, privately" on who would control Ukraine's eastern regions after the war, the BBC reported. The same officials said neither question can be settled without the other.

What Washington is proposing

According to the BBC's account, a US official said Russia and Ukraine "will not solve the Donetsk issue and the territorial issue until they know what the security architecture is going to be after the war." The framework being floated includes security consultations, crisis-communication hotlines and "reciprocal de-escalation measures" between the two sides. Officials also raised reviving the NATO-Russia Council, a channel that has been largely paused since 2022.

Jared Kushner, who is on the US delegation with envoy Steve Witkoff, wrote on X that the talks would focus on the "postwar security concerns" of both countries. He also cautioned that Abu Dhabi could at most "build momentum toward the next phase of negotiations."

The public positions have not moved. Moscow demands that Ukraine hand over the part of Donetsk it still holds. Kyiv wants to freeze the line where it stands. Russia's team includes Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky and deputy foreign ministers Sergei Ryabkov and Mikhail Galuzin. Ukraine's includes intelligence chief Rustem Umerov and presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov, the BBC said.

Europe is the open question

The US official said Washington will propose widening the format to bring in Europeans, while admitting that "the Russians have a bad taste in their mouth with the Europeans." European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Monday that any "meaningful discussions about Europe's security architecture" must include NATO allies and EU members. Our earlier reports on the schedule are here, and on Russia's strikes on Kyiv's power links here.

The pressure is not one-directional. In a 60 Minutes interview broadcast Nov. 8, President Trump said he expects a deal and that Ukraine will end up with "a little bit different shape," without elaborating, RFE/RL reported via OilPrice.com. Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandr Merezhko told the BBC he believes Trump wants "a quick deal at the expense of Ukraine" and pointed to the US purchase of Russian diesel as a signal that "only encourages Moscow." We covered that deal when it was announced. Meanwhile, RFE/RL said Ukrainian crews were still working to restore power to hundreds of thousands of people in the east after Russian air strikes.

What it means for markets

Monday's moves came mostly from the Iran side of the board (see our Iran report), and we could not find a Ukraine-specific cause for any of them. The table is what the screens showed, not a verdict on the talks.

Source: Yahoo Finance, read about 10 PM ET Nov. 9. Oil futures were still trading, so the Monday oil levels are approximate.

• Oil and diesel buyers: the Monday drop in crude traces to the Iran headlines in our other report, not to Abu Dhabi. A trucker or plow contractor watching diesel is still reading the Iran blockade first.
• Airlines: JETS rose 5.2% Monday, but we found no source linking that to the Ukraine talks. Oil falling on Iran is the likelier driver for fuel-sensitive carriers, though we have not confirmed it.
• Defense stocks: ITA is still 15.1% below its Aug. 14 high even after Monday's gain, so one up day does not change the one-year picture.
• Insurers and shippers: Black Sea war-risk pricing responds to attacks on ships and ports, and we have not seen a source tying Tuesday's meeting to any change there.

What to watch Tuesday

Whether the US formally proposes a multilateral format with Europe, and whether Moscow rejects it. Whether either delegation mentions the NATO-Russia Council by name. And whether the strikes on Ukrainian power infrastructure continue while delegates are in the room. Only the BBC and RFE/RL reports were read in full for this piece; AP, Reuters, Politico and the New York Times are running parallel stories we have not yet verified line by line, so figures here are limited to what those two outlets and Yahoo Finance show.

Sources: BBC News; RFE/RL via OilPrice.com; Yahoo Finance. Statements are attributed to the officials who made them and have not been independently confirmed by the Chronicle. This is market information, not investment advice.