War Room brief: oil falls below $100 as Iran and the US talk, and Ukraine's Oleshky ceasefire ends

Iran and the United States

Both sides are signaling that a deal is still possible, while both are reported to be preparing for more fighting. CNBC reports that Secretary of State Marco Rubio said over the weekend that President Trump prefers not to use military force and would like to end the war "diplomatically," while adding that the U.S. has "everything we need" if it has to act. Rubio said Trump "hasn't made a decision." Iranian authorities signaled a deal is possible after two days of Qatar-mediated talks, provided their demands are implemented in practice, according to Al Jazeera as cited by CNBC.

CNBC also cites Wall Street Journal and New York Times reports that the U.S. is preparing for possible renewed strikes after Tuesday's midterm elections, and quotes Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, calling for an "immediate, impactful, and geographically unrestricted response" to any threat. A Reuters headline this morning says the Iranians have left the Doha talks and that a draft proposal for a U.S. deal is being circulated, per an official. We could read only the headline, so the content of the draft and the official's identity are unverified here. No deal has been announced. See our Sunday report on the two-day Hormuz plan. Watch today: any U.S. reply to the draft, and whether the Strait of Hormuz sees any change in traffic.

Gulf states and the Houthis

The Gulf economies are feeling the strain. The New York Times and the Financial Times both carry a piece headlined that Gulf economies "desperately need a return to normal," and Bloomberg runs one on the Saudi corporate-commuter business model being hurt by the war. We could read only the headlines, so we have no figures from either. We found no new Houthi or Red Sea incident on today's board, so we are not reporting one. Watch today: any Saudi or Aramco statement on attacks or infrastructure.

Russia and Ukraine

The local ceasefire in Russian-occupied Oleshky expired at midnight Moscow time, CNBC reports. It was the longest local pause since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, and both sides appeared to honor it, which let aid in and hundreds of people leave. Ukraine's General Staff says Russia used the pause to rotate units, fortify positions and bring in ammunition; that is a Ukrainian military claim we cannot verify. CNBC also notes local media reports of a Russian strike on a hospital in central Kherson on Monday morning.

Separately, Ukraine's Air Force said its Air Alert app was compromised late Sunday and briefly sent false nuclear and chemical warnings to Kyiv and other areas; it said there is no radiation threat. Hours later, Russia's emergency ministry said its own mobile app suffered "a massive cyberattack." It is not clear whether the incidents are linked, and neither government has been independently confirmed on the cause. Also on Sunday, President Zelenskyy said Russia lost 54,400 troops killed or badly wounded in October, a record month; that is Kyiv's figure, not independently verified.

On energy, a WSJ headline says the U.S. is pushing to restore Russian gas sales to Europe via Ukraine. We could not read the article, so we treat it as a lead only. Watch today: any follow-up from Moscow or Kyiv on the app attacks, and the next round of peace talks.

Markets box

Futures and gold are as of about 7 a.m. ET Monday. ETFs did not trade yet; they show Friday's close.

WTI, gold and VIX from Yahoo Finance; percentages are our arithmetic. Brent is CNBC's figure because the feeds we checked mix contract months.

Oil. CNBC quotes PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga saying attacks on ships and refineries and on civilians in Ukraine do little to build confidence in lasting ceasefires, though "hope springs eternal." OilPrice.com also reports crude sliding on the peace hopes. A drop this size leaves WTI roughly 12% under its April 7 peak in our chart, still far above prewar levels. Shipping and airlines. We found no new war-risk insurance or airspace notice this morning. Airline fuel costs are the live pain point; see our pre-market brief on Ryanair. Consumers. Pump prices follow crude with a lag, so a one-day drop does not change what drivers pay this week.

More: crude oil chart, gold chart, markets.

Sources: CNBC, CNBC, OilPrice.com, Reuters, WSJ, NYT, FT and Bloomberg headlines (not read in full), Yahoo Finance. Claims are attributed to the parties that made them. This is market information, not investment advice.