War Room brief: Iran says four tankers hit mines near Hormuz as Democrats take Congress and oil slips to $95

Iran and the United States

The midterm result is now part of the war story. After projections showed Democrats winning both chambers, Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is also described as Tehran's chief negotiator, wrote on X that "Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message," and warned that if Washington ignores its voters, "it will learn our NO comes with a Nightmare." CNBC and the BBC both carried the post.

President Trump told the Wall Street Journal that "Iran was a piece of it" when asked whether the war cost Republicans seats, and said he would do it again, according to CNBC. The BBC reports he also told Fox News that voters would not accept the "short term consequences of paying more for gasoline," and told the FT the U.S. is "locked and loaded if we need to go, but there may be no need for it." CNBC adds that WSJ and NYT reports say the U.S. is preparing for possible renewed military action after the election, and that a Democratic Congress could try to force a binding War Powers Resolution. Indirect talks mediated by Qatar remain stalled, per the BBC. Watch today: whether the White House changes its tone toward Tehran, and any move on a war powers vote.

Hormuz and the Gulf

The Revolutionary Guards said Wednesday that four oil tankers caught fire after hitting naval mines in a southern part of the Strait of Hormuz that Iran has declared off limits, and that two other vessels were seized, according to OilPrice.com. This is Iran's own claim, relayed through the semi-official Tasnim agency per the BBC. We found no independent confirmation of the ships, flags or crew, and no U.S. or shipping-industry statement on it. Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre said a tanker was struck by two unidentified projectiles about 14 nautical miles northeast of Limah, Oman, on Tuesday evening, with no casualties reported. The IRGC also claimed it shot down another U.S. MQ-9 drone; the BBC attributes that to the IRGC.

The flow data cut against the "back to normal" story. OilPrice.com, citing Vortexa data reported by Reuters, says Middle East seaborne exports of crude, condensate and fuels slipped to 17.1 million barrels a day in October from 18.9 million in September. Rystad Energy said it does not expect Gulf flows to normalize soon even with a deal.

In Saudi Arabia, OilPrice.com relays a Middle East Eye report, citing a Western and an Arab official, that Houthi fighters have staged small cross-border raids on Saudi border posts in recent months, including one around the end of October. Neither government has confirmed it in what we read, so treat it as a single-source report. Watch today: Saudi interception announcements and any Houthi claim.

Russia and Ukraine

Reuters and CNBC headlines say the Kremlin has confirmed trilateral peace talks with Ukraine and the U.S. in Abu Dhabi; China Daily gives the dates as Nov. 10 to 11. A Reuters headline also says the EU will host Ukraine-related talks with the U.S. and others on Wednesday. We read headlines only, so we cannot say who attends or what is on the table. On the ground, NBC and AP headlines put the death toll at 31 after a Russian strike on an aid site in Ukraine, with dozens missing; that figure is the outlets' reporting and we did not verify it independently. Reuters headlines say Russia hit power stations in the Kyiv and Zhytomyr regions overnight; we did not read the article and have not confirmed the damage. Watch today: official word on the Abu Dhabi delegations.

Markets box

Futures, gold and VIX are live as of about 7 a.m. ET Wednesday. ETF figures are Tuesday's close; the funds have not opened.

Prices from Yahoo Finance; percentages are our arithmetic. Yahoo's Brent line may track a different contract month than other feeds; OilPrice.com showed Brent near $102.50 and WTI near $95.40 at the same time.

Oil. Crude is lower even as the tanker claim lands: OilPrice.com says prices hit a four-week low on Tuesday on reports Iran may discuss issues it had ruled out, then rebounded as traders turned back to the Gulf. Brent is 13% below the $117.64 it traded on Oct. 30, by our arithmetic. Shipping and insurance. A mine claim in the southern route matters because that is the lane Iran has been targeting; we found no new war-risk premium notice this morning. Airlines. Cheaper crude is the only relief for carriers; JETS closed Tuesday below Monday. Defense. ITA edged up. Gold and VIX. Gold's jump above $4,000 and the VIX drop moved alongside the election result; we did not isolate a single cause. Consumers. Pump prices follow crude with a lag of days to weeks, so a one-day slide changes little this week.

More: crude oil chart, gold chart, War Room, markets. Yesterday's brief: War Room brief, November 3.

Sources: CNBC, BBC News, OilPrice.com, OilPrice.com, Reuters, AP, NBC and China Daily headlines (not read in full), Yahoo Finance. Claims are attributed to the parties that made them. This is market information, not investment advice.