War Room brief: U.S. "minor strikes" on Iran end a quiet week, as Brent logs a 15% weekly drop

Iran and the United States

President Trump told reporters Friday evening that the U.S. carried out "minor strikes" on Iran, after Iran's Tasnim news agency reported that two missiles hit Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz, according to CNBC. Tasnim said there was no official information on damage. Trump did not say whether he meant the Qeshm strikes, but said the U.S. had knocked out "a little bit of an anti-aircraft device." CNBC says these are the first strikes since Tuesday's midterm elections; the U.S. also hit the island on Monday, which a U.S. official described as a "defensive measure." Trump said Iran wants a deal "very badly." Ali Bagheri Kani, deputy secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said Tehran wants "practical measures" from Washington, not "paper commitments," before a new phase of talks. All of this is each side's own account; we have no independent confirmation of the damage.

Analysts are pricing a harder road. The consultancy FGE NexantECA told OilPrice.com that chances of a deal are low and that its base case is a limited U.S. strike before Jan. 3, when the new Congress convenes, most likely mid-November to mid-December and lasting up to four weeks. It expects Hormuz flows to recover gradually only from March 2027. That is one firm's forecast, not a government position. We covered the Qatar channel in Friday's brief. Watch today: any Iranian reply or retaliation, and whether Washington describes the Qeshm action as a one-off.

Hormuz and the Gulf

OilPrice.com notes attacks in Hormuz are continuing even as crude sells off on peace hopes. Red Sea and Houthi front: headlines mention airstrikes on a market in southwestern Yemen that the Houthis say killed at least 30, and Syria advising Saudi Arabia amid Houthi attacks. We could not confirm either from a full article this morning, so we do not report details. Watch today: UKMTO notices and any Saudi statement.

Russia and Ukraine

Headlines this morning (read as headlines only, not in full) say Russia reported hitting targets in and around Kyiv in a large overnight strike (Reuters), that missiles targeted Kyiv and wounded five (AP), and that Russian diplomats and military officials will join talks with the U.S. and Ukraine, according to the Kremlin (Reuters). We have not confirmed the time or place of those talks. Watch today: official Ukrainian casualty and damage figures, and a date for the talks.

Markets box

Figures are Friday's closes; futures and ETFs are closed for the weekend, so these are not live prices.

Prices from Yahoo Finance, read Saturday morning; percentages are our arithmetic. Yahoo's front-month futures series may differ from other feeds.

Oil. OilPrice.com says ICE Brent fell about 15% on the week to roughly $99 on hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal, one of the steepest weekly losses in recent memory. Friday's evening strikes came after the close, so Monday's open is the first test of whether the peace premium holds. Shipping and insurance. Continued Hormuz attacks keep war-risk costs elevated even with crude lower. Airlines and defense. Both ETFs rebounded 1.3% Friday after Thursday's drops of about 4%. Gold and VIX. Gold slipped; VIX eased but remains well above its midweek low. Consumers. Pump prices lag crude by days to weeks, so this week's oil slide has not fully reached drivers, and a renewed strike cycle could stall it.

More: crude oil chart, gold chart, War Room, markets.

Sources: CNBC, OilPrice.com, OilPrice.com, Reuters and AP headlines (not read in full), Yahoo Finance. Claims are attributed to the parties that made them. This is market information, not investment advice.