War Room brief: Gulf states open talks in Tehran, Houthis keep hitting Saudi Arabia, Russia fires 280 drones

Iran and the United States

Diplomacy is moving while the war is not over. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan held talks with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday, and the four agreed to keep engaging on regional security, according to Iranian state media as relayed by CNBC. Riyadh said the aim was to keep channels open and prevent another escalation. CNBC, citing Reuters, adds that Qatar, which has mediated between Washington and Tehran, also sent representatives to Tehran on Sunday. President Trump told Fox News on Sunday that he is approaching a decision on whether to strike a deal or intensify military operations, and that more attacks remain an option. These are the parties' own accounts; no deal has been announced.

Bloomberg's headline says Iran will "take action" against ships of the Korean carrier Sinokor in the Strait of Hormuz. We could not read the article, so we have no detail and do not treat it as confirmed. Watch today: any White House statement on the deal-or-strike decision.

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis

CNBC reports the Iran-backed Houthis kept attacking Saudi Arabia over the weekend, which limited the drop in oil. A Reuters headline says the Saudi-led coalition intercepted Houthi missiles and drones aimed at the kingdom. A Bloomberg headline says Aramco contained a fire near the Ras Tanura oil hub after an attack. We read only the headlines of both, so the cause, the damage and who is responsible are unverified here. Watch today: an Aramco or Saudi government statement on Ras Tanura.

Britain: charges over RAF Fairford

Prosecutors announced charges on Tuesday against two 24-year-old men after an incident at RAF Fairford, the English air base the U.S. used for strikes on Iran, CNBC reported. Mohmed Abdulkarim is charged with assisting a "foreign intelligence service" (the country is not named), and Nouman Essghir with entering a prohibited place for a purpose prejudicial to the U.K. Five people were arrested on Sept. 28. Prime Minister Andy Burnham told lawmakers the incident was "highly likely to have been coordinated in Iran." Tehran denies involvement. Charges are allegations, not findings.

Russia and Ukraine

A local ceasefire brokered by First Lady Melania Trump began at 3 a.m. on Tuesday in Russian-occupied Oleshky, near Crimea, and is due to last until Saturday so that aid can reach residents, per CNBC. Elsewhere the fighting continued: President Zelenskyy said Russia launched as many as 16 ballistic missiles and 280 drones overnight, mostly at energy, logistics and urban infrastructure. That is Kyiv's figure, not independently confirmed. Bloomberg reported that Putin may speak by phone with the leaders of Finland and Norway as soon as Tuesday about a possible peace agreement, citing people familiar. A new round of U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks is expected. Watch today: whether the Putin calls happen and whether the Oleshky pause holds.

On Russian oil, India's oil minister said there is no U.S. pressure to cut Russian imports, according to a Reuters headline we could not read in full. OilPrice.com reports India's crude basket hit $123.29 a barrel last week and that Indian refiners' diesel and gasoline margins have turned negative.

Markets box

Figures as of about 7 a.m. ET; ETFs and VIX are Monday's close unless noted.

Quotes differ by source and contract timing, so read moves rather than exact levels. The Fed announces its decision Wednesday. For travelers and fuel buyers, the two things to watch are Brent staying above $110 and any Gulf airspace or shipping notice. See Sunday's brief, the crude oil chart and markets.

Sources: CNBC, CNBC, CNBC, OilPrice.com, Bloomberg and Reuters headlines (not read in full), Yahoo Finance, Chronicle markets board. Claims are attributed to the parties that made them. This is market information, not investment advice.