Week ahead for futures traders: CPI Wednesday forecast at 3.7%, big banks Tuesday, 10-year at 5.24%

Futures reopen Sunday evening with the week's main event on Wednesday: the September consumer price index. Our economic calendar carries a forecast of a 0.6% monthly rise in headline CPI, up from 0.4% in August, and a 3.7% annual rate against 3.4% last time. Core CPI is forecast at 0.2% for the month and 2.5% for the year. Retail sales and jobless claims follow on Thursday, and the largest U.S. banks open earnings season on Tuesday.

The inflation print lands with the Fed funds target range at 3.75%-4.00% after the September hike, which the minutes released Oct. 7 showed was agreed by all members (Federal Reserve; our full read of the minutes). The next meeting is Oct. 27-28. A hot CPI is the print that would make a second hike a live question, which is why this week matters more than its light calendar suggests.

Where the contracts closed

Contract	Friday, Oct. 9	Friday, Oct. 2	Week
E-mini S&P 500 (Dec)	7,859.75	7,777.25	+1.06%
E-mini Nasdaq 100 (Dec)	31,108.75	31,061.75	+0.15%
WTI crude (Nov)	$91.85	$91.11	+0.81%
Gold (Dec)	$4,216.30	$4,162.30	+1.30%
10-year T-note (Dec)	104-19	104-11½	price up, yield down

Closing prices from Yahoo Finance. Cash indexes for the same week: S&P 500 7,811.54 (+1.15%), Dow 51,654.95 (+0.93%), Nasdaq Composite 27,366.17 (+0.64%). These are Friday's figures; nothing here is a live quote.

The December S&P future closed 48 points above the cash index, which is the normal carry between the two and not a signal on its own. The more useful comparison is leadership. The Dow's weekly gain was larger than the Nasdaq Composite's, and the Nasdaq 100 future barely moved, a reversal of the pattern from the week before. CNBC noted that the S&P 500 reached an all-time high last week while remaining volatile on rising Treasury yields and elevated oil, which have raised concern about further Fed hikes.

The number behind the yield move

Yields eased across the curve over the week, but only slightly, and they stayed near their highs:

Maturity	Oct. 2	Oct. 9	Change
2-year	4.83%	4.80%	-3 bp
10-year	5.28%	5.24%	-4 bp
30-year	5.63%	5.60%	-3 bp

U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve.

The 10-year ranged from 5.22% to 5.31% on daily closes, so the week's net change hides a 9 basis point swing. What matters for borrowers is that mortgage rates did not wait for the 10-year to ease. Freddie Mac's 30-year average rose to 7.40% in the week ending Oct. 8 from 7.28% a week earlier. On a $400,000 loan, that is about $2,770 a month against $2,737, roughly $33 more (our arithmetic, principal and interest only). Next Thursday's reading will show whether the lower yields from the second half of last week filter through. See our 10-year chart.

The calendar (all times ET)

Day	Release or event	Previous	Forecast
Tue, Oct 13	Existing home sales (Sept); JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo earnings	3.98M	3.96M
Wed, Oct 14	CPI, month and year (Sept); core CPI; Morgan Stanley and Bank of America earnings	0.4% m/m, 3.4% y/y	0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y
Thu, Oct 15	Initial jobless claims; retail sales (Sept)	197K; 1.2%	200K; 0.3%
Tue, Oct 20	Building permits (next week)	1.394M

Economic figures from the Chronicle economic calendar; bank schedule per CNBC. Core CPI: previous 0.3% m/m and 2.4% y/y, forecast 0.2% and 2.5%. Day assignment of the existing home sales release is as listed in our feed.

Two features of the CPI forecast are worth separating. The headline is expected to run well above core, 0.6% against 0.2% on the month, a gap that points to energy rather than broad price pressure. And the annual core rate is forecast to rise only a tenth, to 2.5%. If the headline comes in near the forecast and core matches, the oil-driven reading is already in the price; the surprise would be in core.

Bank earnings: the first read on credit and rates

CNBC reports that JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report Tuesday before the open, with Morgan Stanley and Bank of America on Wednesday, and 25 S&P 500 companies in all this week. For the banks, the figure to watch is net interest income guidance. Seaport Research Partners told clients it expects a solid 2027 net interest income guide from JPMorgan but sees expense guidance risk. Bespoke Investment Group data cited by CNBC shows JPMorgan beat estimates 82% of the time yet fell after four of its last five reports, and that Wells Fargo shares have dropped after seven of its last ten beats. For index futures, that history is a reminder that a beat is not the same as a rally.

The geopolitical headline

President Trump said Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an "energy ceasefire," effective immediately. CNBC reported that the White House pointed only to the social media post and that it is unclear whether either side has agreed. President Zelenskyy said Ukraine supports the idea and is awaiting details from the U.S.; on ABC he said Ukraine would stop attacking Russian diesel facilities if Russia stops attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Russia has not confirmed, and ceasefires between the two have been hard to hold, per CNBC. For crude and diesel futures, the first test is Monday's open: there is no verified agreement to price, only a statement.

What could move each market

• Treasury futures: the December 10-year note closed at 104-19. Wednesday's CPI is the main driver. A headline reading at or above 0.6% with core above 0.2% would put the long end back under pressure.
• Equity index futures: Tuesday's bank reports set the tone before CPI. Net interest income guidance from the largest banks is the line to watch.
• Crude: November WTI closed at $91.85. The Russia-Ukraine statement and any Russian response are the swing factor; see our crude chart.
• Gold: December gold closed at $4,216.30, up $54 on the week even as yields eased only slightly. See the gold chart.

Bitcoin traded near $83,350 on Coinbase at 5:30 PM ET Sunday, up about 0.45% from the 24-hour open, and Ether near $2,521, up about 0.5%. For the weekend's crypto detail, see our October 11 crypto report; for last Sunday's setup, see the previous preview and the live futures page.

Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury; Federal Reserve; Yahoo Finance; CNBC; Freddie Mac; Coinbase; Chronicle economic calendar. Mortgage arithmetic is illustrative, principal and interest only on a 30-year fixed loan. Consensus figures are forecasts and may change. This is market information, not trading advice.