Before the bell: Nvidia sinks 7% with Huang's fate open, Nasdaq futures down 0.85%

Nvidia is the whole story before the open. The stock was $160.82 in premarket trading at 6:33 AM ET, down 7.43% from Wednesday's $173.73 close, per the Nasdaq quote feed, after CNBC confirmed that the board met Wednesday to discuss whether to remove CEO Jensen Huang. No decision has been announced. Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.85% and S&P 500 futures 0.4%.

Futures and key markets at about 6:34 AM ET

Futures from Yahoo Finance one-minute data, compared with each contract's prior close as Yahoo lists it. Overnight futures trade thinly and can reverse by the 9:30 AM open. Bitcoin was $73,054 on Coinbase, down 1.16% from its 24-hour open.

How much of the drop is one stock

Leonard Gilroy of the Reason Foundation told Fortune that Nvidia is about 6% of the S&P 500 and about 10% of the Nasdaq 100, as we noted in our overnight update. Apply a 7.4% fall: 0.06 x 0.074 is about 0.44 points for the S&P 500, and 0.10 x 0.074 is about 0.74 points for the Nasdaq 100. Futures are down 0.4% and 0.85%, so Nvidia alone arithmetically accounts for most of the move. This is our estimate from those weights, not a reported figure.

The rest of the chip sector is split. CNBC says AMD and Broadcom were up 3.9% and 3% premarket, while Intel, Marvell, Arm and Qualcomm traded lower. The Nasdaq feed has AMD at $565.65 (+2.31% from its close, at 6:34 AM) and Broadcom at $350.73 (+1.60%). CoreWeave, the star of Wednesday's rally, is $56.25, down 7.44% from a $60.77 close.

What analysts are saying

CNBC reports that Bernstein cut its Nvidia price target from $400 to $200, and that several analysts told it a removal of Huang could push the stock down 20%. Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon said that with the allegation involving a direct report, it is "much tougher for the board to leave him in position." Those are the analysts' views, not ours. Nvidia reports third-quarter results on November 17, per Nasdaq.com. For the earlier background, see our report on the WSJ story.

Strategy loses its MSCI index place

Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, was $115.20 in premarket trading, down 5.84%. According to Cointelegraph, MSCI's final list from its November review marks Strategy as "Deleted," along with Metaplanet and Upexi, effective after the close on November 30. Cointelegraph cites a JPMorgan estimate of roughly $2.8 billion in selling from the exclusion, while Strategy told MSCI that index-linked funds hold about 13 million shares, 3.1% of its basic shares and less than one day's trading volume. The two views differ widely, and we have not independently checked either. Our earlier coverage of the rule change is here.

Rates, gold and oil

The last official Treasury read is Tuesday's: a 10-year yield of 4.98% and a 2-year of 4.73%, per the Treasury's daily par curve, which has not yet posted Wednesday or Thursday. Bonds were closed Wednesday for Veterans Day. Bloomberg's headline this morning says long-dated Treasuries are rising on haven demand; we could not open the full article, so treat it as unconfirmed until the Treasury prints.

Gold is down 1.17% to $3,953.70 and is trading below $4,000, with commentary on the wires pointing to inflation data and bets on a December Fed hike. The Fed context is in our gold close story. Oil is slightly lower despite a Reuters headline that Iran's Revolutionary Guard says two tankers were "disabled" by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz. That claim is unconfirmed and we have not read the full report, so we are not drawing a supply conclusion from it.

Geopolitics to watch

US envoys have arrived in Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin, according to the BBC, Reuters and AP, following talks in Abu Dhabi. CNBC reports Ukraine warns of fresh Starshield disruptions. No result is expected to change energy prices before the open.

What to watch today

• 8:30 AM ET: weekly initial jobless claims, which the Chronicle economic calendar lists for Thursdays. The calendar also showed existing home sales this week, and wire commentary flags producer prices (PPI) as today's data. We could not retrieve forecast numbers this morning, so we are not quoting any.
• Whether Nvidia's board announces a decision, in an 8-K on SEC EDGAR or a company statement.
• Whether Nasdaq 100 futures, 10.3% below their October 6 high, hold their overnight levels into the 9:30 AM open.
• November 17: Nvidia's quarterly results.

Sources: Yahoo Finance; Nasdaq; CNBC; Cointelegraph; BBC; U.S. Treasury; Coinbase; Fortune (index weights, via our earlier report). Premarket and futures prices can change quickly. This is market information, not investment advice.