Before the bell: futures edge up as Nvidia rebounds 3% and Bitcoin sinks 5% to $69,200

Futures are pointing to a small bounce, but the thing holding stocks back is not on the screen this morning: the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Thursday at 5.10%, up from 4.98% on Tuesday, according to the U.S. Treasury, and the 30-year ended at 5.43%. S&P 500 futures were 0.19% above Thursday's settlement at 6:32 AM ET, after the index itself fell 0.35% to 7,592.40.

Futures and commodities at about 6:32 AM ET

Quotes from Yahoo Finance. Percent moves are our arithmetic against each contract's own prior close, not against the cash index, because futures carry a premium to cash.

The Fed is the story behind the story

CNBC reported this morning that about 88% of traders expect a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed's December meeting and the rest expect a half-point move, according to the CME FedWatch tool. October consumer prices rose 0.4% on the month against the 0.3% economists expected, and core prices rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast. CNBC quotes Fed Governor Christopher Waller saying a half-point increase should be on the table if core inflation came in around 0.3%, which is what it did. Our earlier report on the Fed's calendar has more on the committee.

That is why producer prices matter today. Market commentary from FXStreet and FXEmpire lists the October producer price index as the data point that could move gold, and our economic calendar feed does not show the release time. We could not reach the BLS schedule from our systems, so confirm the time before you trade around it. A hot number would add to the case for the larger hike; a soft one would not remove the December move, only shrink the odds of the bigger one.

Nvidia bounces, Cisco slips

Nvidia was $171.15 in premarket trading, up 2.98% from Thursday's $166.19 close, per the Nasdaq quote feed, a day after CEO Jensen Huang resigned. The political fallout is widening. CNBC reported, citing NBC News, that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has agreed to appear before the Senate Banking Committee on December 10 after Chairman Tim Scott asked him to testify, and that Scott also asked Huang to appear on December 3. The committee is examining export controls on Nvidia chips sold to China. Our own coverage of the resignation filing and the lease guarantees behind it covers the balance-sheet side.

Cisco was $99.14 in premarket trading, down 2.81% from a $102.01 close, after its quarterly report. We covered the numbers in Cisco says AI infrastructure sales will top $9 billion, but margins are shrinking. Applied Materials, which reported record results Thursday, was $383.02, up 0.54%.

Bitcoin falls below $70,000

Bitcoin traded at $69,208.89 on Coinbase, down about 5.0% from its $72,854.36 open 24 hours earlier, with a low of $67,555 in that window, according to Coinbase's exchange stats. Ether was $1,954.47, down about 3.2%. We looked for a confirmed cause in the sources we read this morning and did not find one, so we are not offering a reason.

What it means for your day

• If you borrow on a floating rate: a December hike is close to priced in, so a rate on a line of credit tied to prime is likely to rise soon after. Check your repricing date.
• If you are buying a home: the 30-year mortgage rate was 7.11% in Freddie Mac's Thursday survey, but a 10-year at 5.10% is not a backdrop for further drops. Sales of existing homes fell to a 3.75 million pace in October, the slowest in more than 16 years.
• Next week: retail sales are due November 17 (previous reading +0.8%), according to our calendar feed, with Nvidia's results also on the schedule.

Sources: Yahoo Finance, U.S. Treasury, Nasdaq, Coinbase, CNBC, FXStreet, FXEmpire. Quotes may be delayed. This is market information, not investment advice.