Before the bell: futures rise toward a record, 10-year at 5.31%, Constellation up 6% on Google nuclear deal

U.S. stock futures were higher early Tuesday, with the Nasdaq-100 coming off a record close. At about 7:20 a.m. ET, S&P 500 futures were at 7,849.5, up about 0.3% from Monday's settlement of 7,826.25, on Yahoo Finance quotes. Nasdaq-100 futures were up 0.4% at 31,448, Dow futures up 0.5% at 51,793, and Russell 2000 futures up 0.1% at 2,871.8. CoinDesk noted the S&P 500 finished Monday within 0.5% of its all-time high. Live levels are on the markets board.

Yields: the gap that matters

The 10-year Treasury closed Monday at 5.31%, up from 5.28% on Friday, and the 2-year at 4.84%, on the Treasury's official curve. The 30-year was 5.66%. The fed funds rate on our board is 3.88%, so the 2-year sits almost a full point above it, which means the bond market is still pricing in more tightening.

Stocks have held up anyway. In a CNBC column, Mike Santoli wrote that S&P 500 operating earnings growth topped 30% in the second quarter while the forward P/E has compressed from 23 a year ago to 19. Earnings have been rising faster than the price investors will pay for them.

For borrowers, Freddie Mac put the 30-year mortgage at 7.28% last Thursday, up from 7.03%. The 10-year has risen since that survey, so Thursday's reading may be higher. The Fed minutes arrive Wednesday; see our yield story.

Today's calendar

Our economic calendar lists no major U.S. release today. The week's data starts with jobless claims on Thursday (forecast 200,000 against 197,000 previously), then September CPI on October 14, forecast at 0.3% for core on the month, with core at 2.4% a year earlier.

Overnight movers

• Constellation Energy: Shares were $284.51 premarket, up 6.3% from Monday's $267.62 close, on Nasdaq quotes. Bloomberg reported, and Reuters relayed, that Google and Constellation are near a nuclear power deal worth more than $1 billion. A Seeking Alpha headline says the companies have confirmed a deal tied to 890 megawatts of new PJM capacity, though we could not open that article. For context on how much new supply these deals add, see our Constellation and Amazon story.
• Informa: WSJ and Bloomberg report the events and publishing group is buying Clarion Events from Blackstone and separating its academic business. The WSJ puts the price at $2.96 billion, and Bloomberg at 2.2 billion pounds.
• Freight: C.H. Robinson was flat premarket at $140.66 after Monday's 10.9% drop, and RXO was down 2.3% at $28.00 after Monday's 22.5% jump on the takeover offer. Our earlier story has the terms.
• Other: Zscaler was up 2.6% and Nike down 0.9% premarket. We found no company news explaining either move, and thin early volume can distort them.
• Germany: Bloomberg and the WSJ reported a slump in German factory orders for August. We have not seen the Destatis figures, so we are not quoting a number.

Oil, gold, dollar, crypto

WTI was $89.51, down 1.8%, and Brent $101.42, down 2.0% on our board. Gold was $4,161, up 0.5%. The dollar index was 101.59, down 0.2%, with EUR/USD at 1.1254, up 0.3%, a partial rebound from the 17-month low we covered Monday. USD/JPY was 158.14. Bitcoin was $86,315, up 0.1% in 24 hours, and Ether $2,716, flat. CoinDesk said Bitcoin has now been turned back from $87,000 three times since September 23, and an analyst quoted there expects higher volatility if it breaks out of its narrowing range.

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq.com, U.S. Treasury, Freddie Mac, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, CNBC, CoinDesk, Coinbase, Chronicle markets board. Premarket prices move quickly and early volume is thin. This is market information, not investment advice.