Citi slashes its lithium price forecast 40% and Australian miners slide to 52-week lows
Citi cut its three-month lithium carbonate target to $12,000 a tonne from $20,000, citing weaker battery demand. Liontown and PLS touched 52-week lows on the ASX.
Citi has cut its lithium price forecasts sharply, pointing to a worse outlook for battery demand, and Australian lithium shares fell on Monday, Nov. 2. Bloomberg reported the cuts, and Investing.com detailed the market reaction.
The forecast cuts
| Material | Old forecast | New forecast | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium carbonate (3-month, per tonne) | $20,000 | $12,000 | 40% |
| Lithium hydroxide (per tonne) | $17,000 | $12,000 | about 29% |
| Spodumene (per tonne) | $2,000 | $1,200 | 40% |
Percentage cuts are our arithmetic from the reported figures. Investing.com said Citi also lowered estimates for all three materials through the end of 2028.
Why Citi is more cautious
According to the reports, Citi cited slower battery demand growth, trade uncertainty and macroeconomic headwinds. It said buyers may delay purchases and run lean inventories as supply improves in 2027. Other factors named were proposed limits on Chinese hybrid-vehicle exports to the EU, the phase-out of some Chinese tax incentives, and environmental approval for CATL's Jianxiawo mine, which was shut last August and has uncertain restart timing. Citi sees risks skewed to the downside, with sentiment and investor positioning likely to drive near-term prices.
How the shares moved
| Stock (ASX) | Move |
|---|---|
| Argosy Minerals | -5.2% |
| Core Lithium | -4.8% |
| Global Lithium Resources | -3.8% |
| Liontown | -2.4% |
| Wildcat Resources | -2.3% |
| Galan Lithium | -2.3% |
| PLS Group | -1.0% |
Per Investing.com, Liontown hit an intraday low of A$0.575, matching its 52-week low, and PLS touched its 52-week low of A$2.50. Our own check of Yahoo Finance data shows PLS at A$2.61 as of Nov. 2, about 61% below its June 1 peak.
China's market is already lower
The most active lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 1.2% to 91,160 yuan a tonne in Monday morning trading, but was still more than 40% below its end-August level, according to Investing.com. Citi's lower targets sit on top of a price that has already fallen hard.
Who feels it
Producers and developers carry the most direct exposure, since lower spodumene prices squeeze margins and make marginal mines harder to finance. Battery and EV makers are on the other side: cheaper lithium lowers input costs, though the reports tie Citi's call to demand weakness rather than to oversupply alone. A single bank's forecast is one view, not a market consensus.
Sources: Bloomberg; Investing.com; Yahoo Finance price data. This is market information, not investment advice.
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