Intel plunges 28.6% in a day: a record data-center quarter, then a 25-cent profit forecast

Intel reported after the close on Thursday, Oct. 29, and the market punished the forecast, not the quarter. The shares closed Friday, Oct. 30, at $65.76, down 28.6% from $92.07, by our calculation from Yahoo Finance closes. The Associated Press said the drop was close to Intel's worst day since 1974 and that the fourth-quarter profit forecast fell short of analysts' expectations. We could not independently check the historical ranking.

The stock is now 53.3% below its June 22 peak on our chart.

What Intel reported

All figures are from Intel's results release, filed with the SEC on Oct. 29:

Intel also reported $5.1 billion of cash from operations in the quarter. By segment, Data Center and AI revenue rose 78% to $7.3 billion, which CFO David Zinsner called the company's strongest data-center growth in 15 years. Intel Foundry revenue rose 58% to $6.7 billion, though much of that is sales to Intel's own product groups, which is why the release shows $6.3 billion of intersegment eliminations. The Client Computing and Physical AI Group, the PC chip business, fell 5% to $8.1 billion.

The forecast that moved the stock

For the fourth quarter Intel guided to revenue of $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion, a drop from $16.5 billion, with non-GAAP gross margin of 38.0% (down from 44.1%) and non-GAAP earnings of $0.25 a share. GAAP EPS is guided to just $0.10, partly because of a 31% GAAP tax rate. Zinsner said in the release: "we see the PC slowdown continuing at least through the first half of next year." CEO Lip-Bu Tan said demand for Intel's CPUs "remains robust" and that the company's priority is to unlock supply for its Xeon server chips.

Put plainly: sales of server chips are booming and supply-limited, while the larger PC business is shrinking, and the gross margin is expected to fall by about 6 points in a single quarter. Intel's release does not itemize the cause of that margin step-down, so we are not guessing at one.

Confirmed, reported, unknown

• Confirmed in the filing: the revenue, margin, EPS and guidance figures above.
• Reported by the AP: the shortfall against analysts' expectations and the historical ranking of the drop.
• Unknown: how much of the margin guide is memory and component cost, product mix or foundry ramp. Intel's release does not say.

Balance sheet context

Intel finished the quarter with $21.8 billion in cash and equivalents and $32.2 billion in short-term investments, according to its balance sheet, and lists a completed $23 billion public equity offering among its business highlights. That capital is the reason a 53% fall from the peak is not a solvency story: it is a question of what the market will pay for earnings that are expected to fall.

What it means

• Markets: Intel's fall was the single largest drag in a Friday when the S&P 500 lost 1.8% to 7,580.07 and the Nasdaq Composite 2.9%. See our Sunday night futures brief.
• Computer buyers and IT budgets: a PC slowdown that Intel expects to last through mid-2027 is a reminder that Intel's own customers, the PC makers, are cutting orders. Intel's release says nothing about PC prices, so owners planning a refresh should not read this as a discount signal.
• AI trade: Nvidia fell 4.2% to $204.64 the same day, per Yahoo Finance data.

What to watch

• Intel's Xeon supply: management says it is racing to add capacity, and that is where the 78% growth comes from.
• The next PC-maker earnings, for confirmation that the slowdown is as long as Intel says.
• The fourth-quarter report, when Intel will have to show whether the 38% margin guide was conservative.

Sources: Intel filings on SEC EDGAR (Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1, Oct. 29, 2026); Yahoo Finance closes; Associated Press. This is market information, not investment advice.