The Nightcap: Nasdaq futures bounce 0.75% after Intel's 29% crash and a 2.9% Friday rout

Stock futures are higher as the week opens, but the bounce is small next to what came before it. On Friday the S&P 500 closed at 7,580.07, down 1.8%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.9% to 25,437, and the Dow lost 1.1%, by our calculation from Yahoo Finance closes. The Associated Press tied the selling to Intel and worries over artificial-intelligence spending.

Futures at 8:51 PM ET Sunday

Quotes from Yahoo Finance at 8:51 PM ET, Nov. 1; the Chronicle markets board at 9:01 PM ET showed the same direction. Sunday-evening trading is thin, so moves can reverse at Monday's open. Bitcoin is $78,266 on Coinbase, up 0.87% over 24 hours.

The biggest thing: one chipmaker, and what it implied

Intel closed Friday at $65.76, down 28.6% from $92.07, after it reported third-quarter results on Thursday. The AP reported that the company gave a fourth-quarter profit forecast below analyst expectations and said the PC industry remains under pressure, even though the quarter's profit beat estimates. The AP also described the drop as nearly Intel's worst day since 1974. Nvidia fell 4.2% to $204.64 on the same day, and the AP called it the largest drag on the S&P 500.

Amazon is the other name in the story, but its picture is less dramatic than headlines suggest. It closed down 1.4% at $240.35, and the AP reported it had burned $42.4 billion of free cash flow over the prior 12 months while spending $94.8 billion on property and equipment, mainly for AI. The stock fell far less than Intel; the spending bill is what the AP highlighted.

The Nasdaq Composite now sits 7.8% below its Oct. 6 record close, per our chart data. Outside technology, the AP noted, stocks held up better: Exxon Mobil and Chevron both rose on Friday.

Rates, oil and crypto

The Treasury's par curve put the 10-year at 4.94% on Friday, down from 4.98% Thursday and 5.05% on Oct. 28, with the 30-year at 5.31%.

Oil is lower tonight. Our War Room report covers the Doha talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and our Binance story covers the exchange's reopening after the hack.

What to watch at Monday's open

• ISM Manufacturing PMI, Monday: forecast 54.6 against 54.5 previously.
• JOLTS job openings, Tuesday: forecast 7.125 million against 7.079 million.
• Midterm elections, Tuesday. Our calendar has the week's full slate.
• ADP employment, Wednesday (forecast 65,000), then nonfarm payrolls Friday (forecast 65,000, unemployment 4.2%).

The test Monday is whether chip and cloud names keep the bounce or give it back. Friday's lesson from Intel is that a good quarter did not matter when the forecast disappointed.

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Chronicle markets board, U.S. Treasury, Associated Press, Coinbase. Quotes may be delayed. This is market information, not investment advice.