Crypto PACs put $137 million into the midterms and got a Democratic Congress, not a bill

The crypto industry's super PACs spent heavily this cycle, and the election-night result was not the one they were paying for. Democrats won the House and, on current projections, the Senate. The CLARITY Act, the market structure bill the industry wanted most, died on a 49 to 50 Senate vote in September and needs 60 to move. This piece is about money against outcome, and about what the arithmetic looks like for a bill in the next Congress.

What the FEC filings show

We pulled the committee totals for the three crypto-backed super PACs from the Federal Election Commission: Fairshake, Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress. Their reports cover the 2026 cycle through October 14. Independent expenditures, the money spent on ads and other messaging for or against candidates, were:

Fairshake also reported about $139 million in transfers to affiliates, which is why its total disbursements ($169.5 million) look larger than what it spent directly. We have not counted that money twice. The spending in the last three weeks of the campaign is not in these totals; late reports had not been pulled when we wrote this.

The figure circulating in coverage is bigger. Fortune reported "more than $170 million" spent, citing the Tech Influence Watch tracker rather than the FEC. CoinDesk put Fairshake's 2026 ad spending at about $154 million, which it attributed to Fairshake's own claim. A figure near $200 million for the whole industry, which we were asked to check, is not something we could trace to a filing or to either outlet. What the primary record supports through Oct. 14 is $136.9 million, and the real final number will be higher once post-Oct. 14 reports are in.

Where the money went, and how it came out

Fortune's breakdown of the Fairshake network says about $75 million supported Republicans, about $30 million supported Democrats and about $36 million opposed Democratic candidates, including in primaries. The race-level outcomes it and CoinDesk list are lopsided against the biggest bets:

• Ohio Senate. The largest single investment. Fortune counts more than $40 million for Republican Sen. Jon Husted and another $24 million against Democrat Sherrod Brown; CoinDesk puts the anti-Brown spending at $56 million. The two outlets measure it differently, so we give both. Brown won by nearly 5 points, per CoinDesk. He is a former chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, the panel that writes crypto law.
• Illinois. About $10 million opposed Juliana Stratton in the March Democratic primary. Both outlets say she won, and CoinDesk says she then won the general election.
• House. CoinDesk says the network backed 32 safe incumbents and two lost: Republicans Bryan Steil and Bill Huizenga, both prominent in crypto legislation.
• Where it worked. Fortune and CoinDesk both say Pete Ricketts held his Nebraska seat after more than $11 million to $13 million was spent against independent Dan Osborn (the outlets differ on the amount), and Andy Barr won the Kentucky Republican primary with roughly $7 million to $8 million behind him.

The strategic problem is visible in the party split. The network leaned on Republicans in a cycle where, per our election-night report, Democrats took about 258 House seats and at least 54 Senate seats on network projections (not certified; Alaska and Mississippi were uncalled). Money that backed the winners in safe seats did not change who holds the gavels.

The bill and the 60-vote problem

Congress.gov lists the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) as having reached the Senate calendar on June 1 after the Banking Committee reported it. On Sept. 15, cloture on the motion to proceed was not invoked, 49 to 50, Record Vote 234. Sen. Thom Tillis filed a motion to reconsider the same day, which keeps the vote technically open. Nothing further is recorded. Our earlier analysis covered why agency guidance is a weaker substitute, and our CFTC and SEC rulemaking piece tracks the regulatory side.

Here is the number that matters. Cloture needs 60 votes in a 100-seat Senate. In September the bill drew 49. The seven Democrats who negotiated the text, including Gillibrand, Warner and Booker, voted no over ethics provisions, per our September report. In the new Senate Democrats are projected to hold at least 54 seats, so any bill needs Democratic votes in larger numbers than before, not fewer. Republicans stop setting the Senate floor schedule when the new Congress is sworn in, per our election-night report. CoinDesk quotes Americans for Financial Reform's Mark Hays calling the result a "resounding defeat" of the industry's strategy, and says critics such as Rep. Maxine Waters and Sen. Elizabeth Warren could anchor resistance. That is advocacy and commentary, not a vote count.

The industry's side: a Fairshake spokesman told CoinDesk the group "will do it again in 2028," and the group said "'28 is a new map." Ripple's chief legal officer said the facts are "far more nuanced." CoinDesk reports some in the industry now hope for narrower measures, such as crypto taxation, rather than the full market structure bill.

What this does and does not mean

It does not mean the bill is dead for good. A motion to reconsider is pending, committees can be re-staffed, and a bipartisan deal remains possible. It does not show that spending caused any outcome either: Brown and Stratton may have won for reasons unrelated to crypto ads, and nobody can separate them from this data. What the numbers do show is the cost of the attempt, roughly $137 million reported by mid-October for an outcome in which the bill is further from 60 votes than it was in September, and the pitch to donors for 2028 now has to be made with $56 million left in the three accounts as of Oct. 14.

For businesses that handle digital assets, the near-term rules still come from the SEC and CFTC, not Congress. See the crypto section for updates. We will revise this when the FEC post-election reports and certified results are available.

Sources: FEC committee totals for Fairshake (C00835959), Defend American Jobs (C00836221) and Protect Progress (C00848440), cycle 2026, through Oct. 14, 2026; congress.gov H.R. 3633 actions; Fortune and CoinDesk, Nov. 4, 2026; earlier Chronicle reports. Seat counts are projections, not certified. Information, not investment advice.