Stocks close Election Day mixed as JPMorgan sees a blue wave costing the S&P 500 0.5%

Wall Street closed Election Day split. The S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 7,568.92 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.83% to 25,372.01, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 197.26 points, or 0.38%, to 51,786.72, according to CNBC\'s market coverage. Chip stocks rebounded after a three-day slide, and Apple weighed on the Dow after a weak margin forecast. The results of the vote itself were not in at the close: polls begin closing at 6 p.m. ET and Alaska is last at 1 a.m. ET, per CNBC\'s live updates.

The number behind the vote: the 10-year at 4.95%

The bond market did not wait. The Treasury\'s daily par yield curve shows the 10-year at 4.95% on Tuesday, up from 4.91% on Monday and 4.94% on Friday. The 2-year moved from 4.59% to 4.61% and the 30-year from 5.28% to 5.32%. The Wall Street Journal ran the headline that Treasury and European government bond yields rose as markets awaited the results.

That is the figure a borrower feels. CNBC reported that high oil prices from the Iran war and worries about inflation have pushed Treasury yields up since late August. For anyone with a floating-rate line or a loan repricing off Treasuries, the election matters less this week than where the 10-year settles afterward. Our piece on December Fed hike odds and variable-rate debt works through that arithmetic.

What the banks say Wednesday could look like

According to CNBC\'s survey of strategists, polls point to a Democratic House and a toss-up Senate, while prediction markets have leaned further toward Democrats; CNBC separately reported prediction-market traders seeing a nearly 75% likelihood of Democrats taking the Senate. The scenarios it cites:

Wolfe Research\'s Tobin Marcus told CNBC that institutional investors show "begrudging acceptance" of a Democratic sweep as the base case but are not positioned for it, and that his firm thinks "polling is likely overstating Democratic strength." In other words, the gap between what investors expect and how they are positioned is the risk, not the vote count alone.

Who it hits beyond the index

• AI and data-center names. CNBC reports analysts see a big Democratic win, especially a loss for Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, as fuel for a selloff in an AI trade that is already hurting, on fears of data-center restrictions. Goldman Sachs strategists said a Democratic Congress "might limit data center tax incentives, but a national moratorium looks unlikely in any election outcome."
• Defense and healthcare. Wells Fargo\'s Alex Sagal said a substantial sweep "could limit real spending growth" in defense unless a broader deal lifts both defense and health funding, while noting the industry\'s earnings outlook looks stable to modestly positive. Wolfe expects healthcare to be "the biggest focus," with Democrats pushing to restore expired Affordable Care Act enhanced subsidies.
• Banks and card lenders. Financials were the worst S&P sector early in 2026 after the president called for a 10% cap on credit-card interest rates, and Evercore ISI\'s Matthew Aks said Democrats may target consumer-budget sectors on affordability. A cap that reached a vote would matter to card issuers, and to any small retailer whose customers lean on card credit.

The risk almost no one has priced

CNBC\'s separate report on a contested result quotes SimCorp\'s Olivier d\'Assier saying investors do not appear to have priced that risk. The Justice Department sued Alaska over certification if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, a judge dismissed the suit, and the department said it will appeal. Evercore\'s Matthew Aks pointed to 2020, when courts "took many cases on this, heard them and ruled." Ned Davis Research\'s Ed Clissold said a drawn-out dispute could weigh on sentiment, but that the market may care less if Democrats would win control regardless of Alaska. Our earlier reports cover the Election Day monitors and the Alaska suit.

History versus this year\'s setup

Deutsche Bank found, per CNBC, that the S&P 500 rose in the 12 months after 22 of 24 midterms since 1930, and Carson Group\'s Ryan Detrick said the index has gained an average of 13.7% in the year after midterms. See our own look at the S&P 500 after midterms since 1950. The counterpoint is this year\'s starting point: BTIG\'s Jonathan Krinsky noted stocks usually are weak going into midterms, and "we have the opposite setup this year," with double-digit gains for 2026 already banked. Our chart shows the S&P 500 closing Tuesday about 3.2% below its October 6 peak.

What to watch next

Early results arrive from 6 p.m. ET. The first read on markets comes when futures trade overnight and again at Wednesday\'s open, with the 10-year yield the clearest gauge of whether bond investors see a change in spending or deficit risk. Control of the Senate may take longer to call if close races go to recounts.

Sources: CNBC, U.S. Treasury Department daily par yield curve rates, Yahoo Finance index data, The Wall Street Journal. Quotes are attributed to the analysts named. Politics coverage here is neutral and limited to the market angle. This is market information, not investment advice.