Iran says Americans voted "no to war" as Khamenei vows a wider fight: Brent is down 8% to $95

Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Wednesday that American voters "said NO TO WAR" after Democrats took Congress, and warned that if Washington ignores them, "our NO comes with a Nightmare." The BBC and CNBC both carried his post on X. The same day, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said anyone hoping a change of party in Washington would end US "hostility" was "gravely mistaken."

What each side said

President Trump told Fox News that "a part of it was Iran" in the Republican losses, blaming the cost of gasoline, but said he did not regret the joint attack with Israel in February, according to the BBC. He told CBS News the conflict ends "when I say it ends." In an earlier Financial Times interview he said the US was "locked and loaded if we need to go, but there may be no need for it."

Khamenei's statement, per the BBC, said the war would take on "much wider dimensions" if it resumed. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tuesday that "no-one will benefit from this war" and that Khamenei has given the government powers to negotiate issues once considered off-limits. Iran's foreign ministry says the Qatar-mediated indirect talks still rest on the seven-step proposal Iran submitted in September, now "condensed" so it can be carried out within two days. The BBC describes the talks as stalled for months. These are each side's own characterizations and we cannot verify them.

The Hormuz claim that does not check out

Iran's Revolutionary Guard said four oil tankers caught fire after hitting sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, two still burning and two more intercepted, citing the semi-official Tasnim agency. BBC Verify has investigated and has not found evidence that four tankers were destroyed. What is independently on record: the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported a tanker struck by two unknown projectiles about 14 nautical miles north-east of Limah, Oman, on Tuesday evening, with no casualties. On Monday an Indian crew member of a dhow was killed in an attack in the same area, the BBC said, and 13 crew were rescued by Omani authorities. The IRGC also claims it shot down another US MQ-9 drone, which the BBC reports without independent confirmation. Treat the four-tanker figure as an unverified claim.

Separately, OilPrice.com reported that the Houthis said they targeted Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport. Saudi authorities did not confirm an attack, and we found no second outlet, so we do not treat it as established.

For the political side, see our report on Vance and the midterm losses.

Oil, shipping, airlines, defense and consumers

Oil. Yahoo Finance daily data shows front-month Brent settling Wednesday at $95.18, from $103.60 Tuesday, a drop of 8.1%, and 19.1% below its $117.64 close on Oct. 30. Active December WTI closed at $88.72 against $96.09, down 7.7%. OilPrice.com said at 1:06 p.m. ET that Brent was at its lowest since Sept. 4 as traders priced an end to the war, while an analyst it quoted warned escalation could come before any resolution. The market is pricing the talks, not any change in the strait: the BBC notes that the Strait, which normally carries a fifth of global oil and gas shipments, was effectively closed after the war began. See our crude oil chart.

Shipping and insurance. A struck tanker and a killed dhow crew member this week, plus an unverified mine claim, keep the northern Gulf of Oman a risk zone. We did not find war-risk premium quotes this run, so we publish none.

Airlines and defense. The U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) closed at $29.45, up 6.7% from $27.61 Tuesday. The iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) closed at $212.81, down 1.5% from $216.17. Those are funds, not single companies, and the moves coincide with the oil drop and the broad rally rather than proving a cause.

US consumers. Trump himself tied the election result to gasoline prices. Crude is down sharply, but pump prices lag wholesale moves, and a resumption of fighting would reverse the oil slide quickly.

Sources: BBC News, Nov. 4; CNBC, Nov. 4; OilPrice.com, Nov. 4; Yahoo Finance daily closes for Brent, WTI, JETS and ITA. Claims by Iran, the IRGC, the Houthis and US officials are attributed and unverified. This is market information, not investment advice.