Nasdaq 100 slides 1.9% at midday as CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN fall 10% or more; big banks rise

U.S. stocks are lower at midday, and the damage is narrow. At 1:51 PM ET the Chronicle markets board showed the Nasdaq 100 down 1.93% at 29,294, the Russell 2000 down 1.58% at 2,724 and the S&P 500 down 0.90% at 7,669. The Dow is off just 0.36% at 51,997. WTI crude is up 2.8% at $101.13 a barrel and gold is down 0.2% at $4,162.

The board quotes its own prior-close reference, so small differences from official closing prints are possible. Treat these as a midday snapshot, not a close.

Where the selling is

The losses are concentrated in companies that borrow heavily to build AI data centers. Quotes from Nasdaq.com at about 1:51 PM ET:

CNBC said in its midday movers that CoreWeave's Thursday bounce was short-lived as investors brace for higher rates on a highly indebted company. A separate CNBC report tied the week's AI selloff to Anthropic reporting slower revenue growth alongside rising capital spending, and noted Jefferies and JPMorgan analysts calling the drop overdone. Others cited there warned that long-term "take-or-pay" contracts may not be as ironclad as they look. We have covered the credit side in detail: see CoreWeave's credit default swaps at 1,038 basis points.

The thing the headline misses: banks are not the problem today

Bloomberg's headline this morning said big U.S. bank shares are on track for their worst weekly losing streak since 2008. We could not read the article, which is behind a paywall, so we are not repeating its details. What our own quotes show is that on Friday, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup are all higher, and CNBC reported Truist and Regions up about 2% each after third-quarter results that beat estimates. Bank of America is the exception, off 0.4%. The weekly slump and today's session are two different facts.

Why rates are the common thread

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said in Bangkok that he does not prejudge meetings and is "not in that business anymore" of forward guidance, as our morning brief reported. CNBC's analysis put futures odds of an October hike at 15% on Friday morning, and its later CoreWeave report said 17%. The Fed raised rates in September to a range of 3.75% to 4%, according to CNBC. The next decision is October 28, and the Fed's calendar lists that meeting.

The Treasury's par curve had the 10-year at 5.10% on Thursday. That is the cost-of-money backdrop for any borrower, and the reason a company paying over 15% on its bonds, as CNBC reported for CoreWeave, is the first to get hit when hike odds move.

Who it actually hits

For most owners, the stock market is not the exposure; the loan is. A business with a $250,000 floating-rate line of credit pays about $625 more a year, roughly $52 a month, for every quarter point the Fed adds (0.25% of $250,000). That is a small number at 25 basis points and a large one if the Fed keeps going, which is why December pricing matters more than October. Equipment buyers and contractors financing inventory sit in the same position. A fixed-rate loan already signed is unaffected, and a pause on October 28 would mean no change to a variable payment next month.

The practical read for borrowers is to know which of your debts float and what a quarter point costs you, not to guess at the Fed. Check our calendar for the claims data on October 22 and flash PMIs on October 23, which come before the decision.

Sources: Chronicle markets board (1:51 PM ET); Nasdaq.com quotes (about 1:51 PM ET, real-time at capture); CNBC; Bloomberg (headline only); U.S. Treasury; Federal Reserve. The arithmetic on the line of credit is our own illustration, not a quote. Prices change by the minute. This is market information, not investment advice.