Nebius beats Q3 but trims 2026 revenue, lifts capex to $27 billion, and the stock drops 16%

Nebius Group (NBIS) reported third-quarter revenue of $980.8 million, up 571% from a year earlier, and still watched its stock fall. Shares traded near $130.64 at 12:51 PM ET Thursday, down 15.6% from Wednesday's $154.69 close, according to Nasdaq. The reason is in the guidance, not the quarter.

What the company reported

According to Nebius's 6-K filing on SEC EDGAR, Q3 revenue was $980.8 million, against $146.1 million a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA was $465.8 million, a 53% margin on the AI cloud business per its shareholder letter. The net loss from continuing operations narrowed to $37.5 million from $119.6 million. CNBC put the revenue beat at $907.5 million expected by LSEG consensus.

What it cut and what it raised

Management now expects 2026 revenue "at the low end" of its $3.0-3.4 billion range. LSEG analysts had $3.37 billion, CNBC reported. Capital expenditure for 2026 is now about $27 billion, above the earlier $20-25 billion range. The company ties part of the revenue slip to delays at third-party sites, including New Jersey, where it is switching the power source to Bloom Energy fuel cells. It also says the ARR it guided to for December, $7-9 billion, should now arrive in February.

For 2027 it gave a first outlook: revenue of $12-13 billion and capex of $40-45 billion. CNBC cites a FactSet capex expectation of $28.77 billion for 2027, so the spending number came in far above the Street.

The number behind the number

Two pieces of arithmetic from the filing explain the reaction.

• The fourth quarter is nearly flat. Nine-month revenue was $1,962.1 million. At the low end of the year's range, $3.0 billion, Q4 revenue would be about $1.04 billion, only around 6% above Q3's $980.8 million, after a quarter that grew far faster.
• Capex is running ahead of revenue by a wide margin. Nine-month purchases of property and equipment were $15.43 billion. A $27 billion year implies roughly $11.6 billion more in Q4 alone, against about $1.0 billion of revenue. For 2027, $40-45 billion of capex sits next to $12-13 billion of revenue, a ratio of about 3.1 to 3.8 dollars spent per dollar of sales.

Nebius argues the spending is covered. Its letter says prepayments on Q3 deals covered more than 100% of the associated capex, up from 50-60% in Q2, and that prepayments plus financing against investment-grade contracts should cover 75-85% of 2027 capex. It expects $10 billion of committed prepayments in 2026 and $17-20 billion in 2027, and reports $7.4 billion of cash at quarter-end. It also raised $5.75 billion of convertible notes in August and about $1.0 billion through its at-the-market stock program in Q3.

The counterpoint is that 75-85% coverage leaves 15-25% of $40-45 billion to find elsewhere, roughly $6 billion to $11 billion, and that is before any further third-party delays.

Why this lands on the whole group

The report arrived after a sharp bounce. CNBC noted CoreWeave jumped nearly 25% and Nebius 15% on Wednesday, after weeks of selling over whether the AI buildout can be financed. Last week CoreWeave's bond yields spiked past 16%, per CNBC. Nebius's answer, that customers are paying up front, is the argument the group needs to be true. Our earlier look at how neoclouds and hyperscalers have diverged covers the background.

Nvidia, which CNBC says held about $329 million of Nebius shares at the end of June and backstops some neocloud projects, is adding noise as CEO Jensen Huang's resignation plays out.

The bear case, and the company's reply

The bear case is financing and execution: a capex plan that is several times revenue, delays tied to partners, and a stock that remains about 54% below its June 18 peak. The company's reply is that demand is not the problem. It says customers signed more than $12 billion of contract value since the start of Q3, that contract prices per GPU-hour rose more than 20% quarter on quarter, and that it expects pre-tax breakeven by the end of 2027.

What to watch

Whether the New Jersey ramp restores the February ARR target, how much of 2027 capex is financed with asset-backed debt versus new equity, and how CoreWeave's bonds trade after the sell-off.

Sources: Nebius Group 6-K, Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, on SEC EDGAR; CNBC; Nasdaq quote data at 12:51 PM ET, Nov. 12, 2026. Some data may be delayed. This is market information, not investment advice.