The Nightcap: Nasdaq 100 futures fall 1.6% as Democrats win Senate calls, even with AMD up 8%

The biggest move tonight is in Nasdaq 100 futures, down about 1.6% from their 4 PM ET level, and it came in one step. In Yahoo Finance one-minute data, the contract was near 28,171 at 7:55 PM ET and 27,896 five minutes after 8 PM, a drop of roughly 275 points. That is when Bloomberg ran the headline "US Stock Futures Drop as Democrats Gain Early Momentum in Vote." We cannot prove what each trader was reacting to, but the timing matches the first projections.

Futures around 8:52 PM ET

Quotes from Yahoo Finance, read at about 8:52 PM ET Tuesday. Changes are our arithmetic against each contract's 4:00 PM ET price. For reference, the cash S&P 500 closed at 7,568.92, the Nasdaq Composite at 25,372.01 and the Nasdaq 100 at 28,180.26.

What the election is adding

CNBC's live blog, updated at 9 PM ET, said its Election Desk projects the House "leans Democratic," with Democrats winning at least 205 of 435 seats. It reported that Roy Cooper flipped the North Carolina Senate seat, and that the Election Desk had Texas's Senate race leaning toward Democrat James Talarico. CNBC also reported that Sen. Ashley Moody (R) was projected by the AP to win Florida's special election. These are projections, not final results, and control of the Senate is not decided.

CNBC's earlier market preview carried JPMorgan's view that a Democratic sweep could weigh on the S&P 500. That is one bank's scenario. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures taking most of the hit fits it, but the index was already far below its Oct. 6 peak (our chart shows the futures 11.5% under it), so we would not read this as only an election move.

AMD and the 10-year

CNBC reported AMD's adjusted earnings of $2.09 a share, against $1.95 expected, on $13.38 billion of revenue against $13.09 billion expected, with data-center sales nearly doubling. The stock was up 8% in extended trading in CNBC's story. In our Yahoo read near 8 PM ET it was $508.20 against a $483.90 close, about 5% higher, so the gain had narrowed. Our full AMD story has the numbers. One strong chip report did not lift the index futures.

The Treasury's daily curve put the 10-year yield at 4.95% on Tuesday, up from 4.91% Monday, and the 2-year at 4.61%. Gold's rise tonight follows a day when, per Kitco's afternoon report, it fell as strong U.S. jobs data lifted yields.

What to watch at Wednesday's open

Nasdaq's earnings calendar lists McDonald's, Novo Nordisk, Uber, CVS Health, Emerson and Datadog before the open, and Arm, Qualcomm and McKesson after the close. Wednesday's cash session is the first test of whether tonight's drop holds once the full vote count is in. Futures trade overnight, so every level above will move.

Sources: Yahoo Finance; U.S. Treasury; CNBC; Bloomberg (headline only); Kitco; Nasdaq earnings calendar. Futures are not cash-market closes and can move sharply before the open. This is market information, not investment advice.