The Nightcap: futures edge up as Aramco headquarters is struck, with CPI due Wednesday

The biggest headline tonight is Saudi Arabia. Reuters reported that an administrative building at Saudi Aramco's headquarters in Dhahran was attacked with a limited fire reported, after earlier reports of loud booms near the site, and the Financial Times headlined it a suspected Houthi strike. Bloomberg's headline said Houthi missiles struck Saudi Arabia. We could not read the full articles from the paywalled outlets, so we are reporting only what those headlines say: an attack on the headquarters, a limited fire, and no confirmed effect on production or exports.

Markets are not treating it as a shock so far. Futures are modestly higher and oil is firm, not spiking.

Futures at 9:01 PM ET

Futures, gold and oil from the Chronicle markets board at 9:01 PM ET; cash closes from Yahoo Finance, as in our close story. The board quotes continuous contracts and spot metals, so a small gap to a settlement is not a signal. Gold futures and spot gold are different instruments.

Oil and the diesel deal

WTI settled at $94.93 and our board shows it near $96 tonight, with Brent at $109.30 on the same board. The board's oil quotes have run above Yahoo's settlements, so the move that matters is the board's own change since the close, about 0.4%, which is small for an attack on the world's biggest oil company. The market is waiting to learn whether any output or shipping is affected.

Washington's other oil story is also unresolved. CNBC reported that Republican senators including Thom Tillis, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitch McConnell and John Cornyn joined six Democrats urging President Trump to cancel the arrangement letting Russia export diesel on the global market. Oil analysts told CNBC the deal is not enough to move diesel prices meaningfully. The license is the one we covered in Friday's Nightcap.

The Fed headline

Reuters, Bloomberg and the New York Times all carried stories tonight on Fed Governor Lisa Cook: her lawyer denounced a new Trump administration investigation, and Bloomberg reported she put off a White House hearing over the allegations. We have not read the underlying documents, so we are not characterizing the allegations. The market relevance is the independence of the Fed's board a fortnight before its October 28 decision. Earlier today New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed may not have to hike in 2027, which we covered in our analysis.

Rates and crypto

The Treasury's par curve had the 10-year at 5.21% Tuesday, down from 5.24% Friday, and the 2-year at 4.79%. The dollar index is 101.83. Bitcoin is $83,307, up 2.41% over 24 hours, and Ether is $2,503, up 3.46%, per Coinbase quotes on our board.

What to watch at the open

September CPI is due Wednesday, October 14. Our economic calendar shows a forecast of 0.6% for the month, against 0.4% before, and 3.6% over 12 months, against 3.4%. Core CPI is forecast at 0.2% for the month and 2.5% over 12 months. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report earnings Wednesday, the day after Treasury announced roughly $1.21 billion in penalties against Bank of America, per our earlier report. Retail sales and jobless claims follow Thursday.

Sources: Chronicle markets board, Yahoo Finance, U.S. Treasury, Reuters, Financial Times, Bloomberg, CNBC, Coinbase. Quotes may be delayed. This is market information, not investment advice.