The Nightcap: Dow futures drop 1.2% on oil and Iran fears, gold ends the week 4% lower below $4,010

There is no live futures market tonight. Equity-index and gold futures stopped trading at 5 PM ET Friday and reopen at 6 PM ET Sunday, so every price below is from the last session, not a quote. The story is what that session left behind: oil at a six-month high on Iran fears, a Dow down 1.2%, and a Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday.

Where futures last traded

Front-month closes from Yahoo Finance; percentages are our arithmetic. Weekly changes compare with the Oct. 16 closes in our last week-ahead piece. We did not pull a Dow futures figure for Oct. 16, so that cell is blank.

Notice the split: Nasdaq 100 futures finished Friday slightly higher while the Dow gave up more than 1%. After the AI selloff earlier this week, the pressure moved to oil-sensitive and consumer names. Nasdaq 100 futures still sit 7.3% below the Oct. 6 peak on our chart.

The biggest thing: oil, and what is behind it

Brent settled at $116.72, the highest since April 29, and WTI at $103.27, per CNBC. CNBC attributes the move to expectations of renewed U.S. action against Iran, citing U.S. officials quoted by The New York Times who said strikes are planned after the midterm elections, plus continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Those are reported plans, not confirmed actions. Our close story has the stock-by-stock damage, and the Main Street piece does the diesel arithmetic.

The reason this matters for tomorrow's pricing: with markets shut, any weekend headline on Iran or the Gulf is absorbed in one jump at Sunday's 6 PM reopen, not spread across a session.

Rates, gold and bitcoin

The 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday at 5.00%, up from 4.96% Thursday, per the Treasury's daily par curve. Gold's drop under $4,000 intraday and the week's 4% loss came with a firmer dollar and rising yields, covered in our gold story. Bitcoin, which trades all weekend, was $80,568.56 on Coinbase at 9:02 PM ET, down 0.82% over 24 hours.

What to watch from Sunday

• Sunday, 6 PM ET: futures reopen. Brent and any Iran headline set the tone; the Dow's 1.2% drop is the number to measure the first move against.
• Wednesday, Oct. 28: the Fed decision. Our economic calendar carries a 3.875% funds-rate forecast.
• Thursday, Oct. 29: initial jobless claims, forecast 200K against 194K previously.
• The 10-year at 5.00%: whether it holds there or moves back above Wednesday's 5.13%.

Sources: Yahoo Finance; U.S. Department of the Treasury; CNBC; Coinbase; Chronicle economic calendar. Futures are closed; figures are from the last session. This is market information, not investment advice.