Week ahead for futures traders: Nasdaq 100 futures down 5.5% last week, Meta and Tesla report Wednesday, Fed Oct. 28
Futures reopen at 6 PM ET Sunday after a week in which Nasdaq 100 futures fell 5.5% and the 10-year yield dropped 15 basis points to 5.09%. Seventy S&P 500 companies report, France votes on its budget Tuesday, and the Fed decides Oct. 28.
Futures reopen at 6 PM ET Sunday after a sharp week for tech. The December Nasdaq 100 future fell 5.5% between Friday, Oct. 9 and Friday, Oct. 16, and the E-mini S&P 500 lost 2.0%. CNBC attributes the slide to traders rotating out of tech over concern about mounting debt from the AI build-out, with high inflation and geopolitical tension in the background. Every figure below is as of Friday's close; nothing here is a live quote.
Where the contracts closed
| Contract | Friday, Oct. 16 | Friday, Oct. 9 | Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| E-mini S&P 500 | 7,704.25 | 7,859.75 | -1.98% |
| E-mini Nasdaq 100 | 29,391.50 | 31,108.75 | -5.52% |
| Gold | $4,181.10 | $4,216.30 | -0.83% |
| 10-year T-note | 105-14½ | 104-19 | price up, yield down |
Front-month closes from Yahoo Finance; percentages are our arithmetic. Crude is left out of the table because the front-month contract differs between data vendors; our Friday close story recorded WTI at $101.41 and Brent at $109.86.
Gold's small loss on a week when yields fell is the unusual part. Lower yields normally help gold, and it still slipped, which suggests money was leaving risk assets broadly rather than hunting for shelter. That is an observation from two data points, not a conclusion.
The yield move that did not help stocks
| Maturity | Oct. 9 | Oct. 16 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year | 4.80% | 4.74% | -6 bp |
| 10-year | 5.24% | 5.09% | -15 bp |
| 20-year | 5.65% | 5.47% | -18 bp |
U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve.
Long yields fell more than short ones, which flattened the curve, yet equities fell with them. When bonds rally and stocks drop together, the usual reading is growth worry or a risk-off rotation rather than a rates problem. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage rate held at 7.40% in its Oct. 15 reading, so the lower 10-year has not reached home buyers yet. Next Thursday's reading shows whether it does. See our 10-year chart.
The calendar (all times ET)
| Day | Event | Previous | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct. 20 | Building permits | 1.394M | 1.395M |
| Tue, Oct. 20 | GM (before the open); Netflix and United Airlines (after the close) | ||
| Wed, Oct. 21 | AT&T (before the open); Meta and Tesla (after the close) | ||
| Thu, Oct. 22 | Initial jobless claims; Procter & Gamble and American Airlines (before the open) | 199K | 200K |
| Fri, Oct. 23 | S&P Global flash composite PMI | 58.4 | |
| Wed, Oct. 28 | Fed rate decision (the week after next) |
Economic figures from the Chronicle economic calendar; company schedule per CNBC. Dates for the companies are inferred from CNBC's day-by-day layout; confirm with each company's release.
Earnings: 70 S&P 500 companies
CNBC counts 70 S&P 500 reports this week. FactSet data cited by CNBC shows about 45 have reported so far, with 85% beating earnings estimates. Three setups matter most for index futures.
- Meta (Wednesday, after the close): LSEG expects earnings per share up about 460% from a year earlier. Shares have risen more than 15% since the Sept. 8 launch of its Muse AI agent, per CNBC, and fell nearly 8% after a revenue miss last quarter. In a week when the Nasdaq 100 lost 5.5%, a stock that has run into the print is the one with the most room to move on the headline.
- Tesla (Wednesday, after the close): LSEG expects earnings down 14.5% and revenue down about 1%. Bespoke data cited by CNBC says Tesla missed earnings estimates in two of its last four quarters.
- Airlines (United Tuesday, American Thursday): fuel is the story. CNBC reports United said higher jet fuel could add $6 billion to 2026 costs, and Delta cut its full-year forecast earlier this month. With WTI above $100 at Friday's settlement, guidance matters more than the quarter just ended.
Netflix reports after the bell Tuesday following a plan to cut about 1,000 jobs, 6% of its workforce, and a new chief content officer, according to CNBC.
Two headlines to watch at the open
Russia sanctions waiver. CNBC reported that President Trump signed an order Friday waiving key provisions of the sanctions law passed last month. Fox Business reported that Republican senators including Ted Cruz and Thom Tillis criticized the move. We have seen no confirmed congressional action to reverse it. For crude, the question is whether the threat of penalties on buyers of Russian oil returns.
France. Fortune reported rioting in several French cities Saturday and French bond yields at their highest in 24 years, ahead of a National Assembly vote Tuesday on the 2027 budget. A failed vote would hit euro assets first. The euro was trading around 1.1186 against the dollar on our markets board, down about 0.5% on Friday.
What could move each market
- Equity index futures: Wednesday night's Meta and Tesla reports land after the cash close, so futures take the first reaction. See our futures page.
- Treasury futures: the 10-year note settled at 105-14½. Jobless claims (forecast 200K) and Friday's flash PMI are the data; the 58.4 prior is a strong level, so a drop would stand out.
- Crude: the Russia waiver and any Gulf headline. See our crude chart.
- Gold: the dollar and the 10-year yield ahead of the Oct. 28 Fed decision. See the gold chart.
Bitcoin traded near $80,900 on Coinbase at 5:31 PM ET Sunday, essentially flat on the day. See today's crypto prices and last Sunday's preview.
Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury; Yahoo Finance; CNBC; Fox Business; Fortune; Freddie Mac; Coinbase; Chronicle economic calendar. Consensus figures are forecasts and may change. This is market information, not trading advice.
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