Trump says the US no longer needs an Iran deal: "We've got their Strait," and oil bounces

President Donald Trump said Thursday the United States should stop pursuing a deal with Iran. "We don't need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed," he wrote on Truth Social, adding: "We've got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we've got their Strait!" The quote is as CNBC reported it; the Strait is the Strait of Hormuz. The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg both led their oil coverage with the post. Stock futures slipped after it appeared, CNBC said.

What changed

In the same post Trump said he had asked Vice President JD Vance to turn his attention to what Trump called corruption and crime in Democratic-run cities and states. Vance has led diplomacy with Iran in recent months, and the Journal reported Wednesday that he was weighing face-to-face talks with a senior Iranian security official, per CNBC. Nothing in the post says whether that channel is closed. The war, which the US and Israel began in late February, is in its ninth month.

The reversal in tone is sharp. Over the weekend Trump said fresh attacks were highly unlikely as talks progressed, and on Monday he said more military action did not appear necessary "at this point," according to CNBC. We covered the political fallout of the war after the midterms last week and Iran's own line on its enriched uranium yesterday.

The market reaction

CNBC had Brent up 0.5% at $93.29 and WTI down 0.1% at $86.05 at 9:09 AM ET. When we checked Yahoo Finance's front-month futures at about 10:05 AM ET, WTI (December) was $86.58 against a $86.85 prior close, and Brent was $93.54 against $92.57. The move is small. The context is not: CNBC cites FactSet data showing WTI down about 16% in November, and our chart shows it about 18% below its Sept. 15 high.

John Kilduff of Again Capital told CNBC the market "may have gotten ahead of itself on pricing in a cessation of hostilities," and that Trump's claim of control over the Strait could invite more Iranian attacks on shipping. Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates said neither side's position appears to have changed: Iran wants the blockade lifted, sanctions removed and a ceasefire that includes Lebanon, while the US wants Iran's nuclear stockpile gone and free transit through Hormuz. Those are analysts' readings, not official statements.

What we do not know

Trump's post is a statement of position, not a policy document. We have no confirmation from the State Department, the Pentagon or Tehran of any change in operations, and no Iranian response was reported at the time of writing. CNBC also noted that both countries reported ships hit in or near Hormuz in recent days.

What it means

• Oil: the risk premium that drained out of crude in November is the part now in question. Watch whether Brent holds above Wednesday's $92.57 close.
• Shipping and insurance: a statement that the US controls the Strait does not itself change transit rules, but any new attack on a vessel would show up first in war-risk quotes for Gulf voyages.
• Airlines: carriers have benefited from the November fuel drop; a rebound in crude reverses that tailwind.
• Defense stocks: no clear signal from one post; talks ending is not the same as strikes resuming.
• US consumers: energy costs drove voter anger over affordability, per CNBC. Heating oil and diesel follow crude with a lag.

See our crude oil chart and War Room for updates.

Sources: CNBC, Trump on Iran; CNBC, oil prices; WSJ and Bloomberg headlines of Nov. 12; Yahoo Finance futures quotes. This is market information, not investment advice.