War Room brief: Brent holds near $96 after Trump says "no deal" with Iran, as Ukraine hits a Russian warship

Iran and the United States

President Trump wrote on Truth Social on Thursday: "We don't need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed. We've got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we've got their Strait!" Oil jumped on it, with Brent settling 3.3% higher at $95.82 and WTI up 2.6% at $88.74, CNBC reported. Analysts quoted by CNBC read it differently: John Kilduff of Again Capital said the market "may have gotten ahead of itself" in pricing an end to hostilities, and Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates said neither side's position appears to have changed. In his telling, Iran wants the blockade lifted, sanctions eased and a ceasefire that includes Lebanon, while Washington wants Iran's nuclear stockpile gone and free transit through Hormuz. Those are one analyst's summaries, not official positions.

Overnight, the scoop feed also carries headlines from AP and Reuters saying Iran's Revolutionary Guard claims it destroyed or targeted a U.S. early-warning radar in Bahrain, that Iran says tankers were hit by explosions or a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, and that an IAEA report voices growing concern about an Iranian enrichment plant. We have read only the headlines, not the full articles, and the radar and tanker claims come from Iran. We have not confirmed them and are not treating them as fact. Watch today: any U.S. or Bahraini statement on the radar claim, confirmed tanker incidents, and the response to Trump's post.

Russia and Ukraine

Finnish officials confirmed that a Russian warship was attacked in the Gulf of Finland on Wednesday, the BBC reported. Ukraine's SBU security service says it hit the Naro-Fominsk, which it described as a Buyan-M corvette carrying cruise missiles, during a drone operation against the Ust-Luga oil export depot. Estonia's defense minister said the ship was hit around 05:30 local time and returned toward St Petersburg. Damage and casualties are unclear and Moscow has not said, and the BBC notes the SBU's description of the ship's armament and reports of destroyed helicopters are unconfirmed. Finland's foreign minister said Baltic shipping faces no threat. The BBC says storage tanks at Ust-Luga were thought to have been hit.

On diplomacy, US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday, then Volodymyr Zelensky in Dublin, according to the BBC. Kushner said Putin was "willing to give it a try" on having European delegates at the next round of talks, and Zelensky welcomed that. Putin said Russia's position, including its territorial demand, has not changed, the BBC reports. Russia and Ukraine also agreed to what Kushner called the largest prisoner swap since the 2022 invasion, with no numbers or date given. Watch today: details of the swap, a date for the next round, and further strikes on Baltic and Black Sea oil ports.

Markets box

Futures figures are early-morning prints (about 6:30 AM ET) from Yahoo Finance and will move. ETF figures are Thursday's closes.

Percentages are our arithmetic. Yahoo's front-month futures series may differ from other feeds, so we do not name a contract month here.

Oil. Brent is still about 5% above Tuesday's $91.49 settle but, per CNBC, down 20% in November, and WTI is down 16%. Jeffrey Currie of Real Macro told CNBC that rising Middle East volumes cap the front of the curve while insurance and tanker rates keep longer-dated contracts elevated. Shipping and insurance. Any confirmed Hormuz incident would feed straight into war-risk premiums, which Currie points to as the support under later contracts. Airlines and airspace. JETS fell 3.8% on Thursday as crude rose; Gulf airspace and Baltic ports are the items to watch. Defense. ITA gave back 2.1% after two straight gains. Consumers. Pump prices lag crude by days to weeks, so Thursday's jump may slow the recent decline at the pump.

More: Trump's "no deal needed" post and oil, the Gulf of Finland strike, Wednesday's brief, crude oil chart, gold chart, War Room, markets.

Sources: CNBC (oil and Trump post), BBC (Gulf of Finland), BBC (Kushner, Witkoff, Zelensky), AP and Reuters headlines (not read in full), Yahoo Finance. Claims are attributed to the parties that made them. This is market information, not investment advice.