Russia and Ukraine agree a large prisoner swap in Abu Dhabi, but Kushner says "no trust" remains

The second day of US-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi ended Wednesday with an agreement in principle on a large prisoner exchange and no major breakthrough on ending the war, according to the Associated Press. We covered day one on Tuesday. This is what changed.

What was agreed, and what was not

Rustem Umerov, who led Kyiv's team, said "the main result" was agreement on a large-scale exchange and that Ukraine is now working on details, the Kyiv Independent reported. Vladimir Medinsky, who heads Russia's delegation, called it agreement "in principle." Jared Kushner said the numbers would be finalized Thursday.

Neither side has given a headcount. The Kyiv Independent cites Russian general Alexander Zorin, quoted by TASS, as saying it would be the largest ever, with more than 1,000 people on each side. That is a Russian claim we cannot confirm. On Tuesday, Zelenskyy said the sides had discussed 1,000-for-1,000 or 1,500-for-1,500. For scale, the most recent swap, on Oct. 23, returned 270 people each way, the 11th reported exchange of 2026, per the same report.

On the war itself, Kushner was blunt: "The reality is, is there's no trust right now between the sides," the AP quoted him saying. Reuters, in a report carried by U.S. News, said both delegations reported some progress while US mediators cited that lack of trust. The AP lists the fate of occupied Ukrainian territory, postwar security guarantees and Europe's role as the main hurdles.

Europe is still outside the room

The AP reports that Moscow kept European governments, the EU and NATO out of the three-way format. They were in Abu Dhabi but did not attend. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said European statements "don't indicate any desire on their part to contribute" to peace, though Europeans could eventually join. EU officials told the AP that talks on European security could only begin after a ceasefire.

Next, Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff travel to Moscow on Thursday to meet Vladimir Putin, then to Dublin to brief Zelenskyy. Kushner said one aim in Moscow is to bring Europeans into the talks. The Kremlin has not committed to that.

What it means for markets

Prices read around 10:08 a.m. ET Wednesday, against Tuesday's close (our arithmetic from Yahoo Finance data):

Oil. Crude rose, but Wednesday's move lines up with Iran headlines, not Abu Dhabi (see our Iran report). Russia is a major exporter, and a settlement that eased sanctions could add supply, but nothing agreed Wednesday does that. Reuters, via RTE, reports Russian refining capacity is down about 30% since late October after Ukrainian drone strikes, which is a supply factor the talks did not touch. Shipping and insurance. With no ceasefire, Black Sea and Baltic war-risk costs depend on whether energy strikes continue. Airlines and airspace. No change to Russian airspace restrictions has been announced, and JETS slipped with oil. Defense stocks. ITA is up 0.4% and about 14% below its August peak, so there is no sign of traders pricing either a deal or a collapse. US consumers. Gasoline is following Iran and Brent, not this process.

What to watch: the final swap numbers Thursday, what comes out of the Putin meeting, and whether Europeans get a formal seat. More: this morning's War Room brief, crude oil chart, War Room.

Sources: Associated Press via WSET, Kyiv Independent, Reuters via U.S. News, Yahoo Finance market data. Some data may be delayed. This is market information, not investment advice.